The Trade Confidence Index (Icom) rose 4.6 points in June and reached 97.9 points. It is the highest level since August last year, when the index stood at 100.9 points. In quarterly moving averages, Icom advanced 3.7 points, which represents the fourth positive result in a row. The data were released today (29) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre).
According to FGV economist Ibre Rodolpho Tobler, the improvement in the month occurred in both time horizons, but was greater in the Current Situation Index (ISA-COM), which measures perception with the volume of sales at the moment.
“The ISA-COM accumulates an increase of more than 30 points in the last four months, recovering what was lost in the deceleration that occurred between the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. For the coming months, some caution is still necessary, the great challenge passes the continuity of this favorable scenario even with the end of the release of extraordinary resources, macroeconomic environment still unfavorable and consumer confidence at a low level”.
According to FGV Ibre, in June the increase occurred in the six main segments of the survey, influenced by the advance of the ISA-COM, with an increase of 7.4 points, and also of the Expectations Index (IE-COM), which increased by 1.8 point, to 87.5 points. The ISA-COM rose for the fourth consecutive month and reached 108.5 points, the highest value since July 2021, when it stood at 108.7 points.
Thus, trade confidence ends the second quarter of the year on a high, driven by perceptions of the present moment. The institute points out that the ISA-COM went through a continuous decline from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, but in the passage from the first to the second quarter, it accumulated a sequence of highs, managing to recover the level of the middle of last year.