The Antecedent Employment Indicator (IAEmp), released today (7) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV/Ibre) reached the highest level since December in May, rising 1.4 points to 80.9 points. In December 2021, the indicator stood at 81.8 points.
The IAEmp combines data series extracted from Surveys of Industry, Services and Consumers, to anticipate trends in the labor market in the country, relating to the level of employment.
In quarterly moving averages, the IAEmp reached 78.5 points in May, an increase of 2.0 points. According to FGV/Ibre economist Rodolpho Tobler, this second increase followed by the indicator suggests a more favorable scenario for the labor market in the second quarter.
“The improvement in the health situation, after the outbreak at the beginning of the year, and a certain heating up of economic activity seem to contribute to the improvement of the indicator. Caution is still needed, given that the indicator is still at a low level and with prospects for a slow recovery”.
Tobler assesses that economic activity continues with a low projection for the year 2022 due to high inflation and more restrictive monetary policy.
components
In the month of May, five of the seven components of the IAEmp contributed to the positive result. The highlight was Industry, whose Current Business Situation and Business Trend indicators contributed 0.9 and 0.5 points, respectively.
Services Survey – Expected Employment and Services Survey – Business Trends varied by 0.1 point. Consumer Survey – Local Employment Futures changed by 0.3 in the month.
The indicators for the Current Situation of Services Businesses and the Forecast Employment for Industry had a negative contribution, which varied between -0.2 and -0.1 points.
