The Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) rose 2.7 points, reaching 88 points in December. The increase comes after two months of decline and contributed to erase the losses accumulated in the last two years. The data was released today (26) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre).
According to the coordinator of the institution’s Surveys, Viviane Seda Bittencourt, the recovery was driven by the improvement in the perspective of low-income families.
“The improvement in confidence reflects an increase in optimism in relation to the coming months, mainly for families with lower purchasing power, who have been more indebted and suffering more from the effects of inflation and high interest rates”.
On the other hand, she points out that there is a worsening in expectations about the job market.
“The evaluations about the moment are still stable, but with a worsening in the perception about the job market, which generates caution in the intention of purchases in the short term. The year ends with a positive balance and the losses accumulated in the last two years are erased, but a long way is needed for confidence to go back above the neutral level, stimulating consumption.”
In quarterly moving averages, consumer confidence fell by 0.3 points, to 87.3 points, after registering an increase in the last five months.
Components
Among the ICC components, in December the Current Situation Index (ISA) was stable, with a variation of 0.1 point, to 70.9 points, and the Expectations Index (IE) rose 4.3 points, to 100, 3 points, the best result since December 2019.
In the composition of the ISA, the families’ satisfaction with the economic situation worsened, while the evaluations on personal finances at the moment improved. The indicator of perceptions about the financial situation of families rose by 2.7 points, to 63.6 points. While the satisfaction index on the economic situation fell by 2.7 points, to 78.8 points, the worst result since July 2021, when it scored 77.9 points.
The main increase among the ICC components in the month was the financial situation of families in the next six months, with an increase of 12.5 points, to 105 points, reaching the highest level since February 2019, when the indicator stood at 105 points. According to FGV Ibre, the increase recovers the losses suffered in the last two months.
The indicator of the degree of optimism with the general economic situation increased by 4.5 points, to 115.1, which compensates for the fall of last month. On the other hand, the purchase intention of durable goods fell 4.7 points, to 80.8 points.
In the analysis by income group, part of the losses of the last two months among lower-income consumers was compensated, with an assessment of the financial situation of families with an increase after the sharp drop from November?? In higher income classes, the index remains at a high level, but still below the neutral level of 100 points.
