The Leading Employment Indicator (IAEmp) rose by 1.6 points in December, rising to 74.7 points. The indicator recorded a drop in October and November and ends the year 2022 with a negative accumulated balance of 7.1 points. In the analysis by quarterly moving averages, the IAEmp fell 3 points, to 75.9 points.
The data were disclosed today (5th) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV/Ibre). According to the institute’s economist Rodolpho Tobler, despite the growth in December, caution is needed to interpret the trend.
“This month’s increase compensates only about 15% of what was lost in the previous months and the year ends with a negative bias with the result of the last quarter. The low level of the indicator remains and seems to reflect the negative and challenging macroeconomic scenario for the year 2023”.
He claims that analysts forecast a slowdown in the economy, which affects job creation.
“With the expectation of a slowdown in the economy, the labor market tends to react negatively and is unlikely to return, in the short term, to the upward trajectory it had in part of 2022”.
Components
Among the seven components of the IAEmp, three contributed to the positive result of the indicator. The highlights were the Current Situation indicators, which rose 1.7 points, and the Industry Business Trend, which contributed 0.5 points. The Employment indicator in the coming months, coming from the Consumer Survey, contributed with 0.9 points.
Among the falls, the highlight was the indicator of Predicted Industry Employment, which reduced by 0.9 points. The indicators for Predicted Employment, Business Trends and the Current Situation of the Services Business contributed with 0.2 negative points each.
The Leading Indicator of Employment is made with the combination of data from the Industry, Services and Consumer surveys and is related to the level of employment in the country.
