The Federal Reserve (Fed) began a meeting two days after the first Type cut In new months, a reduction that most analysts places in the quarterfinal in a context also marked by persistent inflation, the slowdown in the economic growth of the US and the growing pressure of the president Donald Trump About the entity.
- With the Price climb In August, the highest level since January, the FED is clear that the duty From the Trump government they are affecting the cost of living in the first world economy, while the labor market slows down and an economic activity cools, with a majority of economists forecasting a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of around 1 % in June-September.
The president of the agency, Jerome Powellhe already made it clear in the Jackson Hole forum in August downward risks For the US economy they are gaining importance in favor of the inflationary goal of 2 %, which suggests that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce tomorrow a tomorrow a Reddress of rates.
He Chief economist for the US in Oxford Economics, Ryan Sweet, considers that the Fed “is in a difficult situation” because its goals to stabilize prices and achieve full employment “are moving in the wrong direction”, because it takes it for granted that a Type cut.
Sweet believes that Fed continues to look closely at the IPC rise but that “a consensus within the Central Bank with respect to the duty They will cause a unique increase in price level, even if it extends for several months, due to the lag between the changes in the effective tariff rate and consumer prices. “
Inflation
However, he points out that August datawhen underlying inflation It also stood at 3.1 %, “they do not incline the balance in favor” that this Wednesday a 50 basic points cutso it foresees a reduction of a quarter quarter that places interest rates in a fork between 4 and 4.25 %.
- “He Macroeconomic scenario It paves the way for the Fed to resume its cycle of Type cuts this month“, He thinks on his part Michael Krautzberger, a global allian -income of Allianz Global Investors, which in turn believes that inflation that is well located above the 2 % goal” favors a cut of 25 basic points instead of one of 50 basic points. “
Krautzberger bets in turn Because the FOMC Announce cuts in the three meetings that have pending here at the end of the year, with the last two scheduled for October 28-29 and December 9-10.
To this we must add the Pressures that has exercised for months the White House About the entity to make your monetary policy.
Government independence
In recent weeks, Trump has redoubled his efforts to influence an organism that by law must act with Total independence of the government.
Although he seems to have given up in his idea of getting Powell out of the position, who will leave office in May, he has recently taken it with Lisa Cookgovernor of the Federal Reserve to which he dismissed arguing that he committed mortgage fraud.
Cook, who has refused to leave office, took the dismissal to the Courtsthat this Monday rejected their dismissalwhich has allowed him to be in the meeting of two days that started today.
Who is also present at the meeting is Stephen lookthe hitherto president of the Economic Advisors Council De Trump, who nominated him to replace Adriana Kugler, who resigned from his post at the Board of Governors of the Fed in August.
They look, he was endorsed yesterday by the Senate as New Member of the organism and therefore now adds to two of the twelve members with the right to vote in the meetingChristopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, also considered very close to the positions of the New York tycoon. EFE
