Driven the growth of the economy and the increase in the financial operations tax (IOF), federal revenue reached R $ 254.2 billion in July, the IRS said on Thursday (21). The value is the highest recorded for the month since the beginning of the historical series in 1995, and represents real growth (above inflation) of 4.57% compared to July 2024.
From January to July, the revenue has R $ 1.679 trillion, up 4.41% over the same period last year in amounts corrected by inflation. The value is also the highest for the period since the beginning of the historical series.
One of the main factors for the record was the increase in IOF. In July, the tax collection reached R $ 6.5 billion, up R $ 756 million, 13.05% above inflation, over 2024. In the year, there are already R $ 43.5 billion, growth of 9.42% above inflation.
Despite the discharge, the IRS pointed out that the impact in July was residual, since the Federal Supreme Court (STF) only restored the decree that raised the IOF in mid -July.
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According to the coordinator of forecasting and analysis of the tax authorities, Marcelo Gomide, the full effect will be felt from August.
Target of disputes between executive, congress and Supreme Federal Court, the IOF increase should yield about R $ 12 billion additional this year. By decision of Minister Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court upheld the increase in the IOF, but withdrew the incidence on the draweed risk (type of anticipation of revenues used by traders) and ruled out the retroactive charge.
Other factors:
- In addition to IOF, a series of measures and events helped strengthen public coffers in July:
- Taxation of online bets and lotteries: collection of R $ 928 million in the month;
- Atypical Revenue: About R $ 3 billion of Legal Income Tax (IRPJ) and Social Contribution on Net Income (CSLL) from the mining, financial and oil sectors;
- Social Security Collection: up 3.4% above inflation in July compared to July last year, motivated by the recovery of formal employment;
- Social Integration Program (PIS) and contribution to social security financing (COFINS): up 2.9% above inflation in July, motivated by increased service consumption.
In accumulated of the year, performance also reflects the growth of the Brazilian economy, with a salary rail of 10.6% above inflation and imports of 3.3% larger in dollars.
Fiscal Goal and Perspectives
The economic team evaluates that the positive trajectory of collection increases the chances of meeting the zero deficit target this year, provided for in the budget guidelines law. This year, the government may have a deficit of up to R $ 31 billion (0.25% of gross domestic product, sum of goods and services produced in the country) without formally breaking the rule, and excludes R $ 44.1 billion in official accounts. For 2026, the government needs to obtain a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP, around R $ 31 billion.
However, the performance of public accounts in this and next year depends on the Provisional measure issued in June which aims to reinforce the collection of R $ 10.5 billion this year and R $ 20.87 billion in 2026. Launched to compensate for the dehydration of the decree that raised the IOF, the MP is under discussion at the National Congress.
