This week began with the report of the Economics Monitoring Index (ISE), delivered by the DANE, where it was observed that the country’s economy maintains the good step, although it losing strength again in terms of rhythm and in some sectors Like agriculture, it seems that the bonanza is over and the public sector continues to support growth.
Although from the National Government they celebrated the 1.8% that was reached in the annual variation, the data around this result led to some analysts, economic study centers and unions, put on the table that the persistent deceleration forces us not to speak for now new taxes and on the contrary the productive apparatus is strengthened and conditions of trust are generated.
Also read: With 1.8%, the economic activity of February lost strength, according to the Dane
For example, from the Economic Research Team of Banco de Bogotá they indicated That although the activity presented an annual ascent close to 2% on this occasion, by adjusting for seasonal effect, since 2024 was a leap year, the progress was 3% driven by the public sector, trade, accommodation services, food and transport.
On the not so good side, it must be said that agriculture completed two months in a row in red, public services are not having a good time and the industry and construction fail to leave the negative terrain in which they have been for one year, which, for the unions, must mark the recovery agenda for the remainder of 2025.
Ise
AFP
Tax charges
For María Claudia Lacouture, president of Amcham Colombia, Dane data is the reflection that the economy is fragile and that there is no clear engine that drives growth, beyond the public sector, which currently faces challenges Because of cash squeeze that threaten fiscal stability towards the future.
“The growth of ISE in February 2025 was only 1.77%, a deceleration compared to 2.23%of the previous year. Agro falls (-1%) and industry (-3.1%) reflect fragility in key sectors, while growth in services (3.5%) responds, in large part, to public spending,” he said.
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That said, he looked at the preliminary draft of self -retention at the source he prepares The Ministry of Finance, which from its concept will end up hitting the solvency of companies in times when capital is needed to invest and thus turn the low growth that has been lived for years.
“In a context of high uncertainty, it is urgent to adopt measures that reactivate investment and employment. It is concerned that taxes are used instead of promoting tax savings and efficiency. Business development, base of growth, must be strengthened, not punished,” Lacouture warned.
Economic growth
Courtesy – API
Not everything is bad
A more optimistic analysis of Dane data is that of Fedesarrollo, whose director Luis Fernando Mejía said that the good start of the year is maintained and put their growth expectations in the upper part of the projections that have been known So far, explaining that part of the February data is the result of seasonal factors.
“The economic growth figure adjusted by seasonal and calendar effect was 2.96%, in line with the expectation we had from fedesvelopment (3%). The original figure, 1.77%, is affected by the lowest number of calendar days in February 2025 (28 days) against February 2024 (29 days). A year ago, this effect operated in the opposite direction,” Mejía said.
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For this analyst, the data complements the growth observed in January (2.4%) And it is in line with our estimate of a GDP growth of 2.9%for the first quarter of 2025. The good behavior of tertiary activities, which grew 4.4%, promoted by trade (3.7%), information and communications (4%), financial sector (3.7%) and public administration (7.6%).
However, he assured that doubts about the sustainability of growth in public administration persist, especially in a context of fiscal fragility, as well as the concern in secondary sectors such as industry and construction that continue to accumulate weak performance after annual growth lower than 0.5%.
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Electoral tufillo
From Fenalco they were harder with the review of the results of the ISE and highlighted that in the midst of a fiscal crisis that continues to aggravate itself, the growth is poor and is being marked by the public administration and defense, than for them It can be understood as bureaucracy and grew 7.6% more than four times general economic growth.
“If that intense state activity were in investments, Colombians would be calm but unfortunately that is an expense in operation with an electoral tuffe, that the government does not even try to hide. In contrast, activities such as manufactures, construction, mining, electricity, gas and gas supply followed in February of a fallen layer, with the aggravating fact that the agricultural sector lost significantly the dynamism that it carried.”
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On the other hand Bruce Mac Master, president of the Andi, said that although The February figure shows a better behavior in 2025 compared to what was observed in 2024; This continues to be a very low growth in the face of what the country has usually registered and in the face of the needs it demands.
“Reason for which, we are immensely concerned with increasing the effective taxes paid during the year 2025, which is an initiative raised by the Ministry of Finance by proposing an advance in the retention at the source of the Income Tax. A sustained lag is evidence February, ”he said.
For both Fenalco and Andi, it is urgent to implement an industrial policy that allows the productive apparatus to get out of that negative path recorded in the last two years, generate added value and have the ability to invest and generate more formal employment. This added to generating appropriate conditions that promote the creation of companies and allow them to be sustainable to the existing ones.
