After two months without changes, at the end of this month the Executive Branch must decide the fuel rates for January. So far in December, the scenario is favorable for the interests of Uruguay with international prices that have behaved downward. Another relevant point It is the drop in the value of the dollar, which together with the drop in the price of oil have a positive impact on Ancap’s accounts.
One of the inputs that the Executive Power takes into account every month is the Report on Import Parity Prices (PPI) carried out by the Regulatory Unit for Energy and Water Services (Ursea), and which is based on what happened with the value of fuels on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the US.
Within the first 17 days of the new measurement window –extends between November 26 and December 25–, the average value for the naphtha simile Uruguayan be cheap $6 and went from $27,569 to $21,513 (-22%) compared to the previous monthly average. For Super 95 gasoline, the most consumed in the country, Ursea takes the average international price of two types of gasoline: CBOB Regular 87 and CBOB Premium 93.
For him gasoil the closest possible update to what the PPI would indicate shows that the average price per liter fell $8.61, from $38,006 to $29,387 (-22.7%) in the monthly comparison. This fuel has as reference the price of Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD 62).
These numbers processed by The Observer based on data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), they are only an approximation of what has happened so far in the international market. Two central variables are taken into account: the daily dynamics of prices in dollars in the US and the value of the exchange rate at the local level, which in the reference period lost almost $1 and went from $40,024 to $39.1 on average. .
Secondly, the barrel of Brent oil It is currently trading on the axis of US$ 80 according to the average for the month, 12% less compared to the November average.
To find out if this favorable scenario will finally be reflected in lower fuel prices during January, we will have to wait and see how prices evolve in the remainder of the monthly measurement.
According to current rates at service stations, the current retail price of Super 95 gasoline is slightly below the last PPI ($0.02 difference), while in the case of Diesel 50S, the value $0.15 per liter is located below the import parity, projected to the supplier.
In the July-September quarter, Ancap had a balance in the monopoly market with a profit of US$6 million, while it resigned revenues of US$204 million so far in 2022 for selling below the PPI. A key element that played in favor of the entity being able to give up part of its income has been the high refining margins that were registered mainly in the first half of the year. This allowed the Executive Branch to moderate the impact of international prices on rates without harming the economic result of Ancap’s main activity.
The tax factor
Another element to take into account for next month are the inflation adjustments of the Internal Specific Tax (Imesi) which today represents 24.55% of the final price of Super 95 gasoline ($18.38), and of the tax on CO2 emissions which represents 15.57% of the final price ($11.66) on that product. The adjustment of these taxes is a discretionary spring of the Executive Power. Last January, when its increase was regulated, the cost of gasoline did not increase for users, because it was absorbed by Ancap, which began to obtain less profit for each liter sold.
