These analysis centers have separately proposed to the federal government the application of locks and even reforms to prevent, over the course of the year, health institutions from spending less than the allocated budget.
They also propose that another lock be placed so that the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) does not execute additional cuts, as has happened in other years, and that a budget smaller than the previous year’s budget is never approved.
These proposals represent a defense of the sector, which historically faces shortcomings and a public budget that, since 2011, does not exceed 3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The above, although the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends an expense equivalent to 6%.
The decrease in the budget
Resources for the entire health sector will be lower in 2025, despite the fact that some institutions will have increases, such as the IMSS Bienestar, the agency in charge of the health of the population without social security. Because of this, President Claudia Sheinbaum has denied the cut to the sector.
But, when adding the approved spending for all institutions and contributions to federal entities, the real result shows fewer resources. The Ministry of Health loses 37%, the Contribution Fund for Health Services (FASSA) decreases 42% and Social Security Contributions decrease by 87%, according to an analysis by México Evalúa.
IMSS Bienestar has 22% more, but this amount is insufficient to compensate for the other cuts, he assures.
To put it clearly: the Executive Branch’s assertion that the health budget will grow for the following year due to increases in the IMSS Bienestar body is false.
Mexico Evaluates
In a separate analysis, the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP) reaches the same conclusion, since in addition, although IMSS Bienestar has an increase, it must also serve more of the population.
“When you compare it with the rest of the resources that also complement the entire budget for the population without social security, it is a cut. We see this cut both in the decrease in per capita spending and in hospitals and institutes,” explains Judith Méndez, specialist in Finance and Health at the CIEP.
In such a way that inequality gaps deepen: those affiliated with social security will have more money per person for medical care and those who are more vulnerable will continue to receive less.
The impact between the insured and the uninsured will be seen in the quality of care and it will be difficult to solve old problems, such as lack of medical appointments or shortages of medications.
“2025 will be the worst start to the six-year term in terms of health spending for people without social security,”
Mexico Evaluates
So that this is not repeated in the coming years, México Evalúa proposes to specify in the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law that Public spending on health may not be lower than the previous year in real terms.
And to ensure that resources are sufficient, it recommends calculating IMSS Bienestar financing considering the number of people it seeks to serve per institution, and the specific cost of the diseases to be treated.
Separately, the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) proposes that each year’s budget allocation prioritize the programs and policies with the best or most efficient results.
Another risk: exerting fewer resources
Although the 2025 budget has already been approved, it still needs to be ensured that everything is used. It is often the case that additional cuts are made over the course of a year. This happened in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2023. In all of those years, less money was used than originally allocated.
2023 stood out for having a historic budget for health with 947,000 million (in 2025 pesos). However, at the end of the year only 881,000 million pesos were exercised. The amount spent was even 2.4% lower than what was spent a year before (903,000 million pesos). More resources were also approved in 2024, but it remains to be seen if all of them were used.
For this reason, México Evalúa highlights the need to avoid these extra cuts in 2025, when the budget is already smaller. In the event of variations, it proposes to the SHCP to provide a detailed explanation in quarterly and annual reports on the exercise of health spending during the fiscal year and limit cuts and modifications to the approved budget.
Furthermore, it suggests designing sufficient and timely indicators that allow evaluate the impact of budget programs focused on health.
“If income estimates are not met in 2025, it is possible that health spending will be even worse than expected,” he warns.
Less access to health services
The health cuts are very serious for a health system like the Mexican one that, due to all the delays it accumulates, has not managed to eliminate them even when there are increases in its spending.
In 2022, for example, the number of people without access to public health increased, going from 20 million in 2018 to 50.3 million.
Less access has caused the population to resort to private health services to a greater extent: 54% did so in 2023 and 56% in 2022 at the national level.
“This condition particularly affected lower-income people. The poorest households have had to allocate more than 30% of their disposable income to care for the chronic illness of a member or to finance some complex treatment,” explains México Evalúa.
Despite this adverse context, México Evalúa highlights, The government has not chosen to invest more in health, but has cut spending.
