The consulting firm Factum released on Tuesday the first poll estimating the vote after the internal elections, generating an updated political map in Uruguay.
The results of the study reflect significant changes in voting intentions, with a notable drop in support for the National Party and an increase in support for the Colorado Party. The survey on vote estimation by political party corresponds to the fourth two-month period of 2024 and was conducted by surveying 900 people via cell phone, between July 27 and August 8.
The Frente Amplio (FA) is once again positioned as the party with the highest voting intention, with 44%. This figure is in line with the trends that the party has shown since the first two months of 2023, where its figures have fluctuated slightly within the margin of error, between 42% and 44%.
This sustained support reflects a stability in his electoral base that does not seem to have been significantly affected by other movements in the political landscape.
On the other hand, the National Party (PN), which in previous months enjoyed 30% support, has seen its support drop to 26%. This decrease marks a negative trend in the last two months, suggesting that the PN’s political strategy will have to be readjusted to attract its voters again.
In contrast, the Colorado Party (PC) is experiencing a notable recovery, reaching 15% of voting intentions, after having started the year with a humble 8%. This growth reflects a repositioning of the party in the electorate, possibly related to new proposals or a greater emphasis on its distinctive policies.
The report also shows that Cabildo Abierto maintains 5% of voting intentions, while the Independent Party is holding on to 3%. Minor parties such as Unidad Popular-Frente de Trabajadores, the Partido Ecologista Radical Intransigente (PERI), and Identidad Soberana, led by César Vega and Gustavo Salle, respectively, each claim 1% of voting intentions. 3% of respondents said they would vote blank, while other parties also achieved 1%.
It is important to note that, although the Broad Front leads in individual voting intentions, if the joint support for the parties in the governing coalition is considered, it totals 49% of support.
This sheds light on a possible balance of power that could emerge in the parliamentary elections in October, where the focus will not only be on individual parties but also on the ability of alliances to maintain or modify legislative control.
