Argentine exports to Brazil marked in August the third highest value of the last nine years and the eighth best month from 2012 to date, registering a 31% year-on-year increasewhich made it possible to cut the deficit to US$255 million, down from US$370 million in July.
In August, the growth of imports from Brazil once again overshadowed the good performance of exports to that country and, consequently, the bilateral trade balance was once again in deficit for the eighth consecutive month, explained Ecolatina.
With a trade flow that returned to the levels of 2013 (US$ 2,885 million), the bilateral trade balance in August showed the second highest monthly deficit in the last 15 monthsand meant a significant deterioration in year-on-year terms (in the same month of 2021 it had been US$ 116 million), warned Abeceb.
Argentine sales to Brazil in August exceeded $1.3 billion and were 28% above the average for the first seven months, driven by vehicles (which grew 41% year-on-year and explained 37% of the total, with operations for almost US$ 490 million).
? The Government promotes automotive exports in agreement with companies and workershttps://t.co/D40NFCtT80
—Telam Agency (@TelamAgency) August 31, 2022
However, the Argentina continues to show little weight within the imports of its main trading partner and, despite having improved slightly when compared to July (they went from 4.2% to 4.7%), they are still below 5%, when in 2019 they averaged 6% and in the early 2000s, 12%.
For their part, imports from Brazil once again grew at a high rate in August (40% yoy, practically the same as in July) and their year-on-year increase was almost 10 pp above the increase in exports (only in May was the reverse ).
Purchases from Brazil totaled $1.57 billionthe second highest value since April 2018 and 24% above the monthly average through July, driven by both vehicles and their parts and accessories, which together amounted to more than US$370 million and represented almost a quarter of imports.
Up to August, exports stood below US$8.5 billion (+19% yoy), while imports exceeded US$10.45 billion (+35% yoy); and the trade balance so far in 2022 shows a red of US $ 1,960 million, the highest in the last four years and more than three times the same period in 2021.
Argentine exports to Brazil registered an increase of 31% year-on-year, which allowed cutting the deficit to US$ 255 million
For Ecolatina, “it will be necessary to monitor not only factors of an internal nature, such as the continuity of import restrictions, but also the events that occur in Brazil. Particularly, the electoral dynamics of the presidential campaign and its respective results.”
In the last 17 years, only in 2019 did Argentina manage to accumulate a positive trade surplus with Brazil due to a stagnation in Argentine exports, which were losing representation in imports from Brazil, and due to a high floor in imports from the neighboring country.
“The year 2022 aims to repeat the same story as in recent years, with a bilateral red that would return to around US $ 3,000 million, slightly below the levels of 2018,” Ecolatina predicted.
Meanwhile, Abeceb estimated that “as a result of imports that will continue to grow above exports, the bilateral trade red will continue to widen to close 2022 at around US$2.7 billion, a level that is still lower than the historic structural deficit of US$3.5 billion that It governed between 2004-2018”.
Likewise, “given the shortage of BCRA reserves -and the government’s resistance to making a discreet jump in the exchange rate-, greater restrictions on imports are not ruled out in the coming months, which would reduce the annual bilateral deficit,” they added. .
