Carlos Palencia, general director of the National Council of the Maquiladora and Export Manufacturing Industry (INDEX), explains that this projection on manufacturing jobs It would just be the initial impact of the tariffs.
These estimates are conservative, since they assume that tariffs would not apply to all products nor would they reach 25%. “It will be an uncertain year and it will have to be handled carefully. I think it is crucial to define foreign trade policies well and review the T-MEC,” he commented in an interview with Expansion.
IMMEX companies employ almost 3.3 million people, the majority in the manufacturing segment. This year, less dynamism is being observed in the growth of these jobs, which will be in the single digits and not double digits as in previous years, due to a slowdown in the increase in exports.
With a slowdown in exports and Trump’s entry in 2025, greater concern arises for IMMEX employment.
“Employment had, in general terms, ups and downs in 2024, except for two months, there was growth, both in direct and indirect employment in technicians, in production lines and in administrative personnel.” Palencia points out that if Trump’s tariff threats are not met, 80,000 jobs could be added annually.
For the general director of Index, the idea of these tariffs being implemented is not far off, although it means imposing them on the United States companies that are installed in Mexico, because he sees a possibility that worries him: applying an incentive policy.
“Yes, I know that if it adjusts to Mexico’s tariffs and the rest of the world they are going to hit the consumer, what I can do is seek a reduction in the income tax rate. So, (Trump) can make it sectoral or general for the entire consumer, because he says: ‘ok, I am impacting you with tariffs, but with a reduction in tax rates I am half compensating you.’ That is the power and the possibility that the United States has. We cannot do it because the government is not very given to giving incentives in Mexico and even less so to private initiative,” he assured.
Mexico will continue to be in Trump’s eye due to the high trade deficit it registers ($141.856 million), which in the Republican’s own words is a subsidy. “Here you have a factor that works against us, that he believes that trade always has to be favorable to the United States.”
“The problem is that right now the trade deficit with Mexico is greater than what he had recorded when he began his first term. So he is going to say: ‘Hey, what is happening? We reformed NAFTA, we converted it to the T-MEC and instead of having a balance more favorable to the United States, now it turns out that the winner is Mexico.”
But deep down what that tells you is that production in Mexico is competitive against other countries, says Palencia.
And ‘nearshoring’?
In terms of the increase in IMMEX companies, there is still no impact of the relocation of companies “nearshroing”, because the number of these remains more or less the same, says the general director of INDEX.
Inegi data indicate that in September of this year, 5,195 companies were registered in the manufacturing segment and 1,295 in the non-manufacturing segment, a total of 6,490.
While in 2023, 5,200 were reported from the manufacturing segment and 1,270 from the non-manufacturing segment, which totaled 6,470.
“What has been detected is that there are expansions of production lines, but a significant number of companies that are attributed to relocation, I still do not perceive it, there are almost always 6,500 in recent years, in employment nor are the changes exorbitantly seen.”
Regarding investments, what is observed is the reinvestment of profits, the new one has decreased, that means that companies are expanding, improving equipment or opening new production lines.
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