President Donald Trump’s deportations have already begun to take their toll on large numbers of farm workers who are staying away from their jobs for fear of being caught in an Immigration and Customs Enforcement raid.
If this trend continues, it could potentially lead to higher prices for food, as well as shortages of key crops. 1
In an interview with The New Republic, Cal State-Bakersfield economics professor Richard S. Gearhart warned that the loss of farm workers could portend “absolute economic devastation” in the coming months.
“We are talking about a recession-level event if this is the new norm in the long term,” he said.
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised that he would reduce food prices, which had skyrocketed early in the Biden administration due to a rapid rise in inflation.
Even though inflation had returned to below three percent by the end of Biden’s term, many of Trump’s proposed policies, including not only mass deportations but also heavy tariffs on all imported goods, could cause costs skyrocket brutally.
According to The Fiscal Policy Institute and the Immigration Research Initiative, The most vulnerable immigrants are those who do not have documents, but the impact of that policy does not end there.
Trump plans mass arrests and deportations of immigrants if he returns to the White House
People who have temporary visas may see them canceled or not renewed. People with temporary protected status, asylum seekers, DACA recipients, and many others are also in a precarious position.
This type of law enforcement regime, they emphasize, has far-reaching social and humanitarian implications, but also economic impacts that can be quantified.
There are 4.5 million immigrants in New York State, including 1.8 million noncitizens, and among them an estimated 670,000 are undocumented. In 2022, undocumented people paid approximately $3.1 billion in state and local taxes.
New York’s economy depends on immigrants, including undocumented ones. Deporting these workers would dramatically reduce the affordability and availability of food, housing and care, all basic needs for New Yorkers.
The sectors most likely to suffer negative consequences are restaurants, care workers, construction and agriculture.
As for the former, it is estimated that in New York state there are 7,000 chefs, 17,000 cooks, 9,100 food preparation workers and 9,200 undocumented waiters.
Also 20,900 domestic workers, 16,800 home health aides, 7,000 child care workers and 6,500 undocumented personal care aides.
Likewise, 29,500 construction workers, 12,800 carpenters and 6,200 undocumented house painters.
In agriculture, more than half of all U.S. farmworkers are immigrants. The vast majority of immigrants are undocumented or temporary workers with an H-2A visa.
“Immigrants are a vital part of New York, so it is not surprising to see the drastic impact the Trump Administration’s proposed policies will have on our state,” said David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of the Immigration Research Initiative. “Heartbreaking stories are already emerging of immigrants being separated from their families and communities, and those separations will have negative consequences for everyone.”
“State and city leaders must oppose the implementation of deportation policies that could have a devastating impact on New York’s immigrant communities and its economy,” said Nathan Gusdorf, director of the Tax Policy Institute.
“In addition to their human cost, these policies could remove hundreds of thousands of immigrants from the workforce, causing New Yorkers to lose access to essential services like child care and home care, and increasing the cost of construction during a historic housing shortage.”
