International relations experts assess that the confirmation of the action of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in Venezuela by the United States (USA) sets a dangerous precedent that could justify new direct military interventions by Washington throughout Latin America.
The scholars consulted by Agência Brasil recalled that a US interference in Venezuela violates international law; it can provoke a civil war in one of Brazil’s neighbors; and its objective is to take control of the largest oil reserves on the planet, and not to combat drug trafficking, as the White House claims.
Professor of International Relations at the University of Brasília (UnB) Roberto Goulart Menezes assesses that the impact is “catastrophic” for the entire region.
“We don’t know if the US will stop in Venezuela. The Brazilian government’s apprehension is total, as is that of Colombia and all countries. They will try to make Venezuela a protectorate of the US. They will put in power whoever they want”, he commented.
The researcher at the National Institute of Studies on the USA added that the action against Venezuela is a threat to all of Latin America and the Caribbean.
“It keeps everyone on alert. We’re talking about the US invading a country that’s close to Brazil. So, it’s not just anything. That’s shocking,” he said.
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This Wednesday (15), Trump confirmed that he authorized the CIA to operate against the Maduro government. “I think Venezuela is feeling the pressure, and other countries too,” stated at a press conference at the White House.
International relations professor Camila Vidal, from the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), highlighted that the US intervention in Venezuela violates international law.
“It is illegal for a country to interfere in the sovereignty of another country. Like it or not, Maduro is the president of the country. For Brazil, it has very serious impacts. We border Venezuela. We are talking about war action on our border. Now Venezuela, who will it be tomorrow?”, he commented.
Civil War
The historian and researcher of armed conflicts, delegate Rodolfo Queiroz Laterza, analyzes that the actions against Caracas can be replicated against any Latin American country that, eventually, goes against US interests.
“This demonstrates that any and every Latin American regime, government system or society can be the target of hybrid warfare strategies, as we are seeing against Venezuela,” he said.
In September, most Latin American countries expressed concern with the US military presence in the Caribbean.
For Laterza, a possible fall of Maduro could open a civil war in Venezuela with consequences for all its neighbors, including Brazil.
“The assassination or fall of Maduro could trigger paramilitary and opposition movements with strong support from the corporate media. This would undoubtedly lead to social and political polarization that could lead to a very severe internal conflict within Venezuela, with an increase in migratory flow and instability at the borders”, he commented.
THE Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025, Venezuelan opponent Maria Corina Machado has been supporting Trump’s actions against Venezuela, having dedicated the award to the US head of state.
Drugs and oil
International security expert Rodolfo Queiroz Laterza states that Venezuela, despite having problems with drug trafficking, does not have drug-producing cartels that support Trump’s arguments against the country.
“What motivates Trump’s actions is the geoeconomic factor. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves on the planet. And what is sought from the Trump government is a rearrangement in relation to this wealth. He wants to have influence over this wealth, and for the conglomerates he supports to take over these reserves”, he highlighted.
UnB professor Roberto Goulart Menezes agreed with Laterza’s position. “There are 320 billion barrels of oil. The US wants to recover Venezuela. They know that it is a key country for the Caribbean due to the energy importance that Caracas has”, he added.
In June 2023, Trump admitted that if he had won the election against Biden in 2020, he would have “taken over Venezuela” and “I take all the oil.”
For international relations professor Camila Vidal, from the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), Trump’s measures against Maduro are because the country is not subservient to Washington, having no relationship with the fight against drugs or illegal immigration.
“Venezuela is not a threat to the USA. The problem is that Venezuela has an autonomous, independent and non-subservient policy to the USA. Having in Latin America, in their ‘backyard’, a country that does not respond to Washington’s commands and commands is not and has never been allowed”, he stated.
For Camila Vidal, the justification for fighting drugs is nothing more than an excuse.
“Just as, in Iraq, he used the excuse of nuclear weapons, which we know they didn’t have. In the Cold War it was Soviet communism, now it’s the fight against drugs. In fact, the interest is different: it’s the removal of an autonomous government to replace it with a government subservient to the USA”, he concluded.
Caracas x Washington
Since the Chavistas came to power in 1999, Caracas and Washington have maintained a conflictive relationship. In 2002, a coup d’état removed Hugo Chávez from the presidency for two days, which was eventually reversed by military personnel loyal to the former president.
In 2017, the US sanctioned Venezuela’s financial sector after Maduro installed a Constituent Assembly that stripped the powers of the National Assembly, then controlled by the opposition.
In 2019, Washington applied an embargo against Venezuelan oil and supported Congressman Juan Guaidó’s attempt to take control of the country. Since mid-2022, after the war in Ukraine, the economic embargo against Venezuela has been partially relaxed.
In July 2024, Maduro was re-elected in an election denounced as fraudulent. With Trump’s re-election, the US once again increased pressure to destabilize Caracas with the sending thousands of soldiers to the sea coast of the Caribbean country.
