Miami, United States. – Enrique Diego Arango Arias, Head of the National Seismological Service of Cuba, He assured this Monday That although a great earthquake could occur in the largest of the Antilles, Dominican Republic, Japan, California or other regions with high accumulation of energy in its tectonic failures, it is not possible to make precise short -term forecasts without concrete evidence.
“Both in the Dominican Republic and in Cuba, Japan, California and many other places a great earthquake could occur, in the failures that have a great accumulated energy, it is not secret to anyone, but in the short term it is very difficult to make a prognosis without Show data to prove it, ”said Arango Arias.
The specialist called to handle the subject with responsibility, avoiding alarm or sensationalist approaches. In his statement, he emphasized that “the call for attention is valid, but less alarmist, sensationalist.”
As part of the proper seismic risk management, Arango Arias indicated that there are preventive measures based on the seismic threat of each territory. Among them, he mentioned the inclusion of danger estimates in seismic resistant construction codes, as well as preparation actions for the population and authorities.
In November last year, after The earthquakes that shook the province of Granmathe engineer in Geology and Seismologist Eberto Hernández Suró, with more than 30 years of experience, told the newspaper The demand that “in Cuba it is estimated that a significant earthquake usually occurs every 80 to 90 years.”
“We have been given two more years of grace, since 92 years have passed since the last important event in Cabo Cruz, therefore the concern that the energy accumulated in the subsoil is reaching a critical point is increased,” he said The expert.
On the other hand, he stressed that tremors in the region “are due to natural geological factors that have been happening for millennia and have no relation to human activities.” In addition, he indicated that these telluric movements originate at considerable depths, about 10 kilometers, and are the result of internal tectonic processes of the earth.
The seismologist pointed out that the Chivirico and Pilón area is known for its high seismic activity due to the instability caused by the rupture of rocks. “The scientific community agrees that the movements of tectonic plates are the main cause of these tremors,” he said.
When comparing the November 2024 earthquakes with others that occurred in the territory, the expert classified them as “moderate magnitude.” He also recalled past events such as the 7.1 degree earthquake of January 28, 2021 near the Cayman Islands and the 5.8 -degree earthquake known as the “Providencia earthquake”, which mainly affected the municipality of Bartolomé Masó. “The Bartlett-Caiman failure area can generate earthquakes even more magnitude,” he warned.
Regarding the apparent increase in seismic activity in recent years, Hernández Suró clarified: “The increase in records does not necessarily indicate more earthquakes, but now we have more advanced technology that allows us to detect events of less magnitude.”
The specialist also said that Cuba currently has 24 broadband seismological stations with “top -level technology”, which facilitates more precise monitoring.
