In an economic context marked by the need for currencies and the pressure to fulfill international commitments, the Government Argentine is in the prelude to a key decision: the second disbursement of USD 2,000 million by the International Monetary Fund (IMP), corresponding to the first technical review of the agreement signed in April.
While the agency’s directory prepares to evaluate the results of that review, the national economic team, with the protection of the Governmenthas deployed a series of maneuvers to accelerate the accumulation of reserves, without resorting directly to the intervention of the Central Bank (BCRA).
The first review of the Expanded Fund Service Agreement (SAF), which includes total financing of USD 20,000 million, was completed by the technical staff of the technical staff of the IMP Last Thursday.
The report recognizes advances in the implementation of macroeconomic policies, such as the support of the fiscal anchor, the reduction of inflation and the transition to a more flexible exchange regime. However, the most sensitive point remains the accumulation of reserves, where Argentina has not yet fully reached the agreed goals.
The Government had assumed the commitment to accumulate USD 4,400 million in net reserves for June, but difficulties in the exchange market and the lower export settlement complicated compliance.
Despite this, the IMF recognized that the program “has had a solid start” and that the conversations are “very advanced”, although a specific date for disbursement has not yet been set.
Risks and tensions on the horizon
Although the strategy has shown positive results in the short term, it has also generated concerns. The 1816 consultant warned that the BCRA would have reached a position sold in futures contracts close to USD 4.8 billion, which represents a significant risk in case of exchange volatility. In addition, the electoral calendar could intensify the demand for dollars, in a context of lower supply by exporters.
The presidential spokesman, Manuel Adorni, tried to minimize the criticism of the IMP on the low level of reserves, stating that “there is no problem with the accumulation of reserves” and that the Government It is fulfilling its goals. However, the possibility of requesting a waiver (technical dispensation) for the partial breach of the reserve goal remains latent.
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