In the last elections on June 2, the PRI had the lowest results in its history, going from being the third to the fourth national political force, while the PAN lost the governorship of one of its strongholds: Yucatán, and the PRD was left without registration after not reaching 3% of the votes.
Added to these results are the divisions within both parties. For example, in the PRI there is a dispute to prevent Alejandro Moreno from being re-elected, and in the PAN, members of the PAN have complained to Marko Cortés that he has only secured his seat in the Senate.
All of this will cause, political analysts believe, opposition legislators to switch to the Morena bench; especially in the scenario that if the president’s party does not achieve a qualified majority, due to adjustments to the rules of overrepresentation, then it will be seeking to add deputies and senators to reach the necessary vote and be able to make the constitutional modifications required, at least, for judicial reform.
“I do believe that there will be an exodus, especially from the PRI and the PAN to Morena or Movimiento Ciudadano, but with the weakening of these parties that are in the coalition, there will surely be migration. That is indisputable,” the analyst points out.
The expert recalls that changes in parliamentary groups in the Congress of the Union are not something new, as this has been seen in other legislatures; however, she believes that this time there could be more resignations from their parties of origin to join Morena or Movimiento Ciudadano.
“I think it will be very interesting to see these deputies, these legislators, who may start off, but in the first or second week there could be a stampede depending on the internal path of the parties,” he said.
He points out that if a group of 10 to 20 legislators leave their seats to join Morena, then the issue of overrepresentation will be overcome, and the constitutional reforms of the president and Claudia Sheinbaum will pass without a problem, since to do so it is necessary to reach a qualified majority, which is at least 334 votes in the Chamber of Deputies.
Political scientist Patricio Morelos comments that, after an election, it is natural to see “exits” of militants to other parties, and more so, he said, when there are “resounding defeats” as happened with the PAN and the PRI in the elections of June 2.
“We are going to see the transfer of many cadres, of many people. The problem for them is that it seems that today there are only two options, which would be the 4T or Movimiento Ciudadano,” he says.
The rearrangement of power is taking place mainly in the defeated parties, explains Ernesto Díaz Iturbide, an expert in legislative matters, indicating that after these elections there is a rearrangement of forces within the parties.
“They were really overwhelmed by the electoral victory of Morena and its allies and this has several implications. Some of them are internal fractures within the PRI and the PAN and, despite the fact that their leaders, both Marko Cortés and Alejandro Moreno, will have a plurinominal position in the Senate of the Republic, their leadership is seriously questioned,” he mentions.
This coincides with what was stated regarding the hypothetical scenario of Morena and its allies not winning seats, then they will seek to recruit opposition legislators.
“If Morena and its allies do not obtain the seats and seats necessary to have a qualified majority, the pressure or the possibility of buying followers – within the Senate of the Republic and the Chamber of Deputies – to obtain that qualified majority will be very great and this will be very tempting for some senators and deputies to go over to Morena,” he warns.
