However, analysts warn that it is still early to celebrate a definitive victory in the battle against high prices. Behind the encouraging data, there are warning signs that could stop the optimism of the Bank of Mexico and limit future cuts to the interest rate.
Next, five key risks that keep the inflationary panorama in suspense.
1. underlying, still high and rigid inflation
The underlying component – which excludes high -volatility goods and is a better parameter for the long term – was 4.25% per year, above the goal of the Central Bank. Although it slowly decelerated, analysts such as Alejandro Saldaña, an economist in Chief of Banco VE for more, they consider that this indicator continues to show resistance to lower, which demands caution in monetary policy decisions.
“Since the underlying index did not show large variations in this reading – keeping above 4% annualized – since its panorama is still relatively uncertain, we consider that monetary policy decisions must be carried out with great prudence,” explained the analyst.
2. Services: prices do not yield despite economic weakness
One of the largest red foci is the item of services, which remains above 4.4% per year, despite the slowdown in economic activity. “It is striking that the services remain so above their historical average in a context of clear economic weakness,” said Saldaña.
3. Pressure in merchandise and livestock foods
Although merchandise inflation fell slightly in biweekly terms, Banco Base and Monex warns that their behavior remains uncertain.
Monex emphasizes that the prices of livestock products are kept high, with annual inflation of 10.7%, and could be pressed by the detection of boreride worm and the suspension of cattle imports from the United States.
4. Vulnerable exchange rate
The possibility of new Mexican weight depreciations represents a latent risk for inflation, especially in the merchandise. Base Bank highlights that a exchange rate drop could quickly translate into higher costs for imported products and, with it, additional pressure on consumer prices.
5. Rat cuts can be more moderate
Despite the good recent data, the consensus between analysts is that Banxico will act prudence. Monex estimates that at its next meeting of August 7, the Central Bank will only cut 25 base points, placing the rate at 7.75%, compared to previous expectations of a more aggressive cycle. The resistance of the underlying inflation limits the margin of action.
