Monitoring intentional homicides
To counteract the political use of indicators and develop precise diagnoses and relevant public policies, periodic exercises are required, with appropriate methodologies that make visible the various dynamics of violence at the territorial level (I am criticizing the government’s “style” comparisons, which use total number of homicides).
In this framework, México Evalúa presented the first monthly report Violence and Pacification which accounts for the differentiated behavior of intentional homicides at the state level in 2024 (considering the data accumulated from January to September). Unlike other approaches, it proposes various balances of the situation of homicidal violence in the states, comparing two metrics: rate per 100,000 inhabitants and percentage change compared to the previous year.
In this way, the balance sheets prioritize the current reality, but qualify the conclusions based on trends over time. It is worth commenting on these balances to contrast with the panorama drawn by the federal government’s narrative.
States with the lowest homicide rate
States with a positive balance They register a rate of intentional homicide per 100 thousand inhabitants, lower than the national average (19) and with a downward trend. They are the states where things are possibly being done very well (I emphasize the likely because we know that crime statistics can be inconsistent even due to intentional manipulation). There are ten entities in this situation, most of them located in the north-central part of the country.
The case of Zacatecas draws a lot of attention because until a few years ago it was one of the epicenters of violence and today it has registered a reduction of more than 50% in just one year. What will the Zacatecano “miracle” consist of? Is it cruel fiction or one of the greatest security successes in modern history? This issue deserves its own column.
States with a regular balance They are those that register an intentional homicide rate lower than the national average and an increasing trend. They are entities that are entering into processes of violence and that if the trend continues could soon move into a critical situation, such as Sinaloa, Oaxaca or Puebla. In recent years, Sinaloa had maintained low levels of intentional homicide despite being the stronghold of the Sinaloa Cartel.
However, the war between Los Chapitos and Mayiza that triggered the fall of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, has left more than 300 dead in just a few weeks. As long as none of the groups prevail, the trend will continue in the same direction. The possible alliance of the Chapitos with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel does nothing more than anticipate greater violence for Sinaloa.
Now, the media impact of Sinaloa should not make us lose sight of the cases of Puebla and Oaxaca, which registered high levels of political violence in the last elections and which today seem to be experiencing the consequences of the reconfiguration of the criminal regime in their territories.
States with the highest homicide rate
States with a negative balance are those that register an intentional homicide rate higher than the national average and a downward trend. Here it seems that things are being corrected somehow. In this situation there are four states with strong organized crime problems, but with different logics.
In Chihuahua the dispute is over the northern border, in Colima over the port of Manzanillo, in Michoacán the conflict is over the exploitation of production chains and in Guanajuato over the theft of hydrocarbons.
States with a very negative balance are those that register an intentional homicide rate higher than the national average and an increasing trend. These are the cases that contradict the official narratives in every possible way: Guerrero, Morelos, Tabasco, Quintana Roo, Nuevo León, Baja California and Sonora.
The situation of each of these entities deserves its own analysis, but it is worth highlighting the severe crisis that Tabasco is experiencing with a 242.7% increase in homicidal violence resulting from the clash between criminal organizations that seems to have worsened since the local transition.
