A scientific study warns that the global increase in temperatures is likely to cause, over the next few years, more infections with the Chikungunya virus, transmitted by mosquitoes, which causes joint pain. 
This viral infection is common in regions with a tropical climate, where there are millions of cases of Chinkungunya infection every year. According to the study, it could spread to another 29 countries, including a large part of the European continent.
The situation in the southern region of Europe is the most alarming. The research, published in Journal of Royal Society Interface and published this Wednesday (18) by the British newspaper Guardianidentifies Albania, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain and Portugal as the six countries most at risk of epidemics associated with Chikungunya.
Transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, mainly those of the species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictuswhich survive and reproduce in hot environments, the virus does not, at least for now, have the same impact in countries further north in Europe.
However, according to the study’s lead author, Sandeep Tegar, cited by Guardian“it’s just a matter of time” before this reality changes and the disease also expands to these regions.
Based on an analysis of the impact of temperature on the incubation time of the virus in Aedes albopictusscientists concluded that the minimum temperature that allows infection is around 2.5 degrees Celsius (°C).
The level is substantially lower than that indicated by previous studies. The maximum temperature favorable to the transmission of the disease varies between 13°C and 14°C.
Until now, it was estimated that transmission of the infection would only occur at minimum temperatures of 16 °C to 18 °C. The new data indicate that the risk of chikungunya outbreaks may cover more regions and last for longer periods than previously anticipated.
Chikungunya virus infection causes intense and debilitating joint pain, which can last for several years. The disease is potentially fatal in children and the elderly.
Chikungunya is not transmitted directly from person to person, but according to an article published on the Hospital da Luz portal and written by doctor Saraiva da Cunha, cases of “transmission from mother to child during pregnancy and perinatal period and following transfusions of contaminated blood” have already been documented.
The virus, first detected in 1952 on the Makonde Plateau in Tanzania, hit France and Italy on a large scale last year. Both countries have recorded hundreds of cases of infection, after several years with few cases across Europe.
Global warming
The cold winters in Europe used to be a barrier to the activity of Aedes mosquitoes, but due to global warming, the reality is now different and they operate throughout the year in Southern Europe. Scientists predict that, in the coming years, the situation will tend to worsen and that outbreaks of infections will become increasingly intense.
In statements to the newspaper Guardianthe study authors were alarmed by the results of the analysis. Sandeep Tegar, from the British Center for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) points to the galloping pace of increase in temperatures in Europe, which, as he stated, “is approximately double” the global average. Considering that “the lower temperature limit for virus spread is very important,” the new estimates are shocking.
According to Dr. Diana Rojas Alvarez, who leads the World Health Organization’s team on viruses transmitted by insect and tick bites, the disease transmitted by Chikungunya can be devastating, with up to 40% of those affected suffering from arthritis or acute pain, even five years after infection.
While weather has a huge impact on the spread of these cases, Dr. Alvarez told Guardian that it is also Europe’s responsibility to “control these mosquitoes so that they do not spread further”.
The WHO leader warns of the need to educate the European community about the elimination of stagnant water – where mosquitoes breed – and the importance of wearing long, light-colored clothing to prevent bites, as well as the use of repellent.
Furthermore, she appeals to health authorities to create surveillance systems for the disease.
At the same time, the main author of the study, Sandeep Tegar states that the research conducted by his team provides necessary tools for local authorities to know when and where to act.
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