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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva contemplates the end of the second year of his third term aware that the country lived through tense and turbulent times, especially in the second half of the year, which reached its peak between November and December.
He is also aware that the scenario could be repeated, perhaps reinforced, starting in January. In turn, there are several contradictions. Inflation is under control, although more strongly precisely in the area that causes the greatest wear and tear on the government along with public opinion, the food sector. Unemployment is the lowest in the last 25 years.
The economy as a whole grew within schedule. For better or worse, the government managed to approve in the worst, greatest defender of particular interests, the most salable Congress in history, several important projects, despite the alterations suffered in the hands of deputies that are not sold, they are rented.
And without a clear and concrete explanation being found, the approval of both Lula da Silva and his government in public opinion, according to surveys carried out by institutions respected by analysts and scholars, is weak.
Between those interviewed who approve and those who disapprove of the government, the difference has been oscillating between two and three points, around 35 percent. It is worth remembering that according to the same institutes, such distance is within the so-called margin of error
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The great shakeup of the last days of 2024 was divided into two. One, in the prison of a four-star general, something unprecedented in Brazilian history, and the other, the skyrocketing of the dollar in the exchange market.
To get an idea of the change scenario, the Brazilian real was, of the 15 main world currencies, the one that lost value the most against the dollar.
The Central Bank tried to contain the drain by selling gushes of dollars. Only between Thursday the 19th and Friday the 20th, more than 8 billion dollars were cleared in the market.
But even so, the dollar continued to remain above the six-real mark. There is supposedly a strong dose of the purest speculation: but surely the lack of confidence related to 2025 also contributes to the picture.
Such distrust is essentially based on what the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, will do from the White House. If he keeps his promise to expel illegal residents and tax exports from several countries, Brazil among them, the picture will become uglier.
The other shock on the scene occurred with the imprisonment of the four-star general, although retired, Walter Braga Netto.
His name was on the list along with 36 others suspected of plotting a coup. Among them another retired general, already detained, and the unbalanced far-right Jair Bolsonaro, during whose government Braga Netto was Minister of Defense. In addition, he participated, as a vice presidential candidate, in Bolsonaro’s attempt to remain in the presidency.
There are plenty of signs that former President Bolsonaro is getting closer to prison. Maybe that’s why the deathly silence in front of his friend’s prison.
Braga Netto, it is true, enjoys advantages. He is imprisoned in a room with television and air conditioning and receives the same food as the other officers of the barracks where he is detained.
But there is a bitter irony: he was already commander of that same barracks in Rio. From the command to the room transformed into a prison has been a fairly short trip.
