The bulletin of the Monthly Operation Program (PMO) of the National Electric System Operator (ONS), released today (30), signals an increase of 1.8% for the energy load (resulting from the sum of consumption plus losses in the network) in the National Interconnected System (SIN), in the first month of 2022, with a forecast of 73,652 average megawatts (MW). Three subsystems indicate expansion, the largest (5.8%) for the North region, with 5,922 average MW; followed by the South, with an increase of 5.5%, reaching 13,608 average MW. In the Northeast, the load increases 2% and reaches 11,999 average MW, while the Southeast/Midwest subsystem remains stable, with 42,123 average MW and zero advance.
The load projections considered results presented by indicators from different sectors of the economy. With that, the document points out that high inflation, the cycle of high interest rates and the gradual recovery of the labor market constitute the biggest obstacles at the moment and also for the coming months.
Regarding affluent natural energy (ENA), which comprises the amount of water received by a hydroelectric plant that can be transformed into energy, the bulletin estimated that in the Southeast/Midwest subsystem, the percentage in January will be close to the historical average for month, at 96% of the Long Term Average (MLT). In the North, the ENA should be 183% of the MLT; and in the Northeast, 123% of the MLT. The prospect in the South is 40% of MLT.
The forecast is that the reservoirs in the North and Northeast will be fuller in January. In the North, they should reach 85.7% of their capacity by the end of next month. In the Northeast, the estimated range is 72.5%. In the Southeast/Midwest region, the level will be 37%, and the South should register 34%.
For the next operating week, the ONS predicts that the Marginal Cost of Operation (CMO) will vary between subsystems. In the South and Southeast/Midwest regions, the expectation is that there will be an increase of 4.85%, going from R$ 63.54 to R$ 66.62. On the other hand, in the Northeast, the CMO will have a drop of 16.32%, going from R$ 43.13 to R$ 36.09. In the North, the value of R$ 43.13% will reach zero, indicates the document.
