The National Consumer Price Index registered a monthly variation of 0.66%, the highest for a November since 2021. Within the general index, the non-core component increased 2.28% monthly, reflecting pressures in electricity, fruits and vegetables, and energy. Electricity alone contributed 0.28 percentage points to inflation for the month, due to the end of the summer rate subsidy in 11 cities in the country.
On the other hand, core inflation—which determines the longest trajectory of the inflationary phenomenon—rose 0.19% monthly and 4.43% at an annual rate.
Internally, services advanced 0.39%, while merchandise showed a slight drop of 0.03%. Despite this marginal decline in goods, the underlying component has already accumulated several months above Banxico’s objective and maintains persistent pressures in items such as housing, processed foods and food services outside the home.
Among the products with the greatest increases, electricity (20.70% monthly), collective public transportation (4.90%) and tomatoes (14.34%) stood out, all with significant impacts on the general increase. In contrast, Products such as avocado, potato, banana and orange decreased.
Gap with Banxico’s goal persists
For the Bank of Mexico, underlying inflation is key to defining the pace of rate cuts in 2026. Although general inflation remains within the variability range, the fact that underlying inflation remains at 4.43% annually, far from the target, suggests that the disinflationary process still faces structural resistance, especially in services, which are advancing 4.49% annually.
November data show that, although Mexico has managed to contain inflation compared to the 2022 peaks, the component that reflects the most persistent pressures has not yet converged, which could lead the central bank to a prudent stance in its monetary policy at the beginning of 2026, according to what some economists warn. Especially if they are considered possible effects of increases in taxes such as the IEPS and tariffs.
