It is well known that Morena, Verde and PT had a significant majority in the vote on June 2: in the presidential election they obtained 59.7% of the votes, in the election for deputies 54.5% and in the Senate 55% (in total votes by party). What the INE advisory boards will have to decide in the first instance, and the magistrates of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal in a second, is whether this vote is enough for the official coalition to obtain a qualified majority in both Chambers through the allocation of seats by the principle of proportional representation.
Since 1977, when the principle of proportional representation was introduced into the Mexican Constitution and electoral legislation, there has been a notable evolution through constitutional reforms and interpretations by electoral authorities that have allowed the issuance of criteria by which the principle of proportional representation has been felt in order to guarantee plurality in the composition of legislative bodies, allow the representation of minority groups and, above all, avoid artificial majorities. This has had the effect that since 1997 no political force (party or coalition) has had a qualified majority. Of course, there have been attempts by parties to circumvent the rules of overrepresentation to create majorities that do not reflect the results at the polls, but these have been effectively stopped by the determinations of the electoral authorities.
The implications of a qualified majority that does not reflect the electoral result are very pernicious, because without citizen support the constitutional balance of the entire Mexican State would be broken. The qualified majority allows for the modification of the Constitution, the approval of international treaties, key appointments in autonomous constitutional bodies such as the Bank of Mexico, the National Commission on Human Rights and the INE, among others, and also implies strangling parliamentary minorities, since for example they could not present actions of unconstitutionality for not having the 33% that the legislation requires.
For this reason, on August 23, the INE councilors, and in the days following when the respective challenges are resolved, since the decision will undoubtedly be judicialized, the electoral magistrates will define not only an assignment of seats by the principle of proportional representation, but the decision they adopt and the criteria they follow will have an impact like never before on the democratic life of the country, which will define the course of Mexico for the next three or five decades. Those who make up the INE and the Electoral Tribunal have a date with democracy, the rule of law and history, so in the following days all eyes must be on the councilors and the magistrates.
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Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the sole responsibility of the author.
