The demand for the advancement of the general elections has gained strength this week and is expressed in the social mobilizations in Lima and regions. A proper presidential succession by July 2023; however, it requires a sequence of steps. It all depends on Congress and the deadlines are not very auspicious either.
The Constitution Commission, by Fuerza Popular, It already approved on December 5 a first opinion on the reduction of the presidential and parliamentary mandate by July 2023.
The text; However, far from opening a clear path to have general elections promptly, it leaves several doubts. In Parliament they never ruled on the route for the approval of the opinion. This is fundamental: a cut in the presidential and parliamentary mandate requires a constitutional reform, and this is approved in two legislatures.
This legislature culminates in a matter of six days: December 15. The Parliament would have to adopt the opinion before this date.
If it does not, they would have to wait for the start of the second legislature, which is in March 2023. Unless public pressure forces the president of Parliament, José Williams, to extend this legislaturewhich would give some leeway.
The lawyer specializing in electoral matters, José Naupari, recalls that Congress has already chosen to advance legislatures. Being so, the other requirement would be to have 87 votes to ensure the approval of a well-designed opinion.
the schedule
Another relevant aspect is to define an electoral schedule, with all the technical deadlines that include key aspects such as primaries, main elections and the presidential runoff.
The opinion of the Constitution Commission, chaired by the fujimorista Hernando Guerra, establishes elections for a term of only four months.
In fact, in the committee discussions it was mentioned that The Constitution already establishes an option of elections within a fast period of four months.
Jorge Jáuregui, lawyer and expert on electoral matters, explains that there was an inadequate reading of the Constitution.
“The period of four months is regulated in article 134 of the Constitution, but it is when the president closes Congress and calls only parliamentary elections. But a general election, which includes primaries and a second round, in just four months is very risky.”he expressed.
Jorge Jáuregui warns that Congress would have to approve a special regulatory framework. “This Congress has demonstrated an unprecedented spirit of coup d’état. He too National Jury of Elections has been under attack from this parliament. So if they want to regulate a four-month schedule, that opens up the possibility that they could continue to interfere in the electoral rules. They could do fraud to win by cheating, ”he warned.
In the opinion of Jorge Jauregui, elections could be scheduled for a succession in July 2024respecting a regular schedule of nine months from the call to the second round.
As for the electoral bodies, on Wednesday there was an extended plenary session in which, In addition to establishing a position regarding the coup d’état by Pedro Castillo, they analyzed the technical times of an electoral process.
Boluarte now admits possible advance
The president Dina Boluarte, yesterday, he chose rethink his speech in relation to the advancement of the elections, after he was sworn in on Wednesday to fulfill his mandate until 2026.
“The Constitution says until 2026; However, if society and if the situation warrants, we advance elections in conversation with the political and democratic forces of Congress, we will sit down to talk ”, he expressed before the media.
Political reforms necessary for the country
Focus by: Percy Medina, International IDEA
Prior to new ones elections, three reform packages are required. It is necessary to reform the legislation on parties, simplifying formal requirements to facilitate the entry of new organizations, but guaranteeing that they are broken and not shells.
You have to give membership consequences, such as establishing quorums for important decisions. Direct public financing must be redesigned to help build parties and finance some aspects of campaigns.
A second package should focus on the suitability and legitimacy of the candidates. Improve the filters applied by the parties and that there be those responsible in case of non-compliance. More transparency in the information and background, from the pre-candidacies.
This is linked to the open primaries, which is a reform that has already been approved but has been suspended in the last two elections. Well designed, they would help to involve citizens in the definition of lists, which makes it possible to eliminate preferential voting.
Finally, it is urgent to reform the relations between the Executive and the Legislative. Se must regulate the vacancy and expand the assumptions to prosecute a president (corruption and other serious crimes). set the bicamerality to improve representation. And, finally, analyze the cross death, to give stability to the system.
