In the months prior to the elections, the EcoDat consultancy disseminated the intention of votes for the Presidential elections, giving a wide difference to Santiago Peña, in the face of the disbelief of the Concertación and his friendly media. However, today the results prove him right, but they make a fool of one or two polls of dubious origin.
The credibility of the polls was once again the focus of debate in the run-up to these general elections. Both the disadvantaged candidates and the sectors that support them not only questioned the numbers, but also directly discredited them.
However, Once the elections are over and with the results of the TREP in sight, the figures give solid support to the majority of the polls and leave without arguments those who ignored them.
As far as presidential badges are concerned, the pollster EcoDat, In his most recent work prior to April 30, he gave as winner to Santiago Peña with 41.4% and placed Efraín Alegre in second place with 31.0%.
The difference with the final result was 1.3% and 3.5%, respectively, considering that Peña won with 42.7% over Efraín’s 27.5%.
In this regard, the director of EcoDat, Julián Ruiz, She celebrated the news and not only highlighted her work, but also that of the other pollsters, who were 80% correct, thus demonstrating the seriousness and commitment of the work.
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On the point, he reflected that, despite the criticism, polls are a valuable tool to find out preferences and public opinion research is essential in any electoral process.
“I am grateful to all of the respondents who participated in our surveys and to our research team who worked hard to provide accurate and reliable results,” Ruiz said.
Election day, a very striking exit hole began to run on social networks, through the Latam Analytics account, which, placed Efraín Alegre in first place with 47.98%, Santiago Peña second with 42.59%, Paraguayo Cubas third with just 7.79% and Euclides Acevedo fourth with 0.59%. Almost imperceptible appeared José Luis Chilavert.
The survey mentioned as a universe a Taken from 20,000 cases collected by T&D Trending at the 2:00 p.m. cutoff and analyzed by Latam Analytics.
The answers of the users did not wait and generated all kinds of ridicule, such as“source: the wishes”, “source: the one of my dreams”, “lie that I like it”, among others.
Another one that screwed up big was AtlasIntel, an international consulting firm based in Brazil, which located Efraín Alegre with 38% and Santiago Peña with 36%. In addition, Paraguayo Cubas with 14% and Chilavert and Euclides with 3% each.
A successful study in terms of approximation was that of Grau y Asociados, which, in one of its polls published in April, gave the following figures: Santiago Peña with 38.8%, Efraín Alegre with 22.1%, Paraguayo Cubas with 18.2%, None with 11.2%, Euclides Acevedo with 5.9% and José Luis Chilavert with 3 ,1 %.
Regarding the candidate they would never vote for, the one who heads the list is Efraín Alegre, with 14.8% of the votes, followed by Peña with 10.1%.
In addition, the consultantto Multitarget, at the end of March, showed the following voting intention: When asked, who would you vote for if the elections for President of the Republic were held today? 39.3% answered that Santiago Peña, 20.9% said they would choose Paraguayo Cubas and 18.8% Efraín Alegre.