Amid a wave of violence, blackout And of economic difficulties, about 11 million Ecuadorians must choose, this Sunday (9), the president of the country and the 151 parliamentarians of the National Assembly for the period from 2025 to 2029.
The current president, Daniel Noboa, faces 15 candidates, including the best positioned in the polls is Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution, party of former President Rafael Correa, who ruled the country from 2007 to 2017. research They give divergent results: Some give Daniel and others show Luisa ahead in the first round.
In October 2023, the Noboa directo won González, from the center-left, in the second round by 52% of the votes. He was elected for a 15 -month buffer term after then President Guilherme Lasso dissolved the parliament and summoned early elections.
Ecuadorian sociologist Irene León talked to Brazil agency directly from Quito, capital of the country. She explained that the mega -candlestroad noboa, whose family owns the holding Nobis, who operates in various businesses, having consolidated himself as the largest banana exporter in the country, is close to governments of the United States (US), Argentina and El Salvador.
“He is the richest heir in the country and is part of this economic surroundings. If you win the elections, you will continue to make it available to the market, the big capital, everything the country has. The focus of its proposal is an economy associated with the libertarian anarchocapitalist vision that is rising in Latin America, ”said Irene.
On the other hand, is the political group of former President Rafael Correa, who launched Luisa González again to run for president. Sentenced for eight years in prison for corruption, Correa has been exiled in Belgium. She says she is the victim of political persecution by courts, a practice known as Lawfare.
According to sociologist Irene León, the Citizen Revolution Party is still the country’s main organized political force. “Luisa González proposes measures for the reactivation of the economy with the involvement of the state, but also of other actors. They have a proposal of less dependence on oil export and also defends the foreign debt audit, ”he added.
To take the election in the first round in Ecuador, the candidate must have more than 50% of the votes or more than 40% and a distance of 10% of the second place. All research has indicated a second round between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González.
Crime
In five years, homicides increased 588%, making Ecuador one of the most violent countries in Latin America. Of a rate of 7 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019, the small country of 17 million people recorded, by 2024, 38 homicides per 100,000 people.
According to anthropologist Salvador Schavelzon, professor at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp), the Ecuadorian voter should define his vote, to a large extent, evaluating how candidates position themselves in relation to increased violence.
“The issue of security has replaced others that were traditionally important and guided the elections in Ecuador, such as the indigenous issue, extractivism, ecology. These were important topics in the 2008 constituent process. Now the election is about violence and security. This plays in favor of Daniel, ”Schavelzon told Brazil agency.
Armed conflict
At least since 2021, Ecuador is shaken by rebellions, riots and wars between organized crime factions. Less than three months after Noboa assumed the government, explosions, kidnappings and even the invasion of a live newscast by criminals led the president to declare the country in internal armed conflictclassify criminal groups as terrorists and expand the military’s powers in public security.
The measures resulted in increasing allegations of torture, executions and arbitrary arrests in the country, victimizing mainly the poorest population. In January of this year, the bodies of four teenagers who had been arrested by military in Guayaquil were found, a fact that shocked Ecuadorian public opinion and led to the arrest of 16 armed forces agents.
For Latin America Salvador Schavelzonm expert Noboa’s “hard -hand” response against crime has a lot of media effect, but does not necessarily generate solutions. “Many times have arrested, but cartels continue to work, the big names in trafficking are not necessarily arrested either, [atuando] even in complicity with military and political power. That is, it is violence against the poor, who end up paying the cost. Security forces do not know how to deal with and becomes a more media issue, and the election expresses it, ”he said.
Irene León pointed out that Daniel Noboa’s security policy does not consider the exporting sector and money laundering, where the sociologist would be, the nuclei that allow organized crime to continue operating in the country. “In the war from again, these sectors have not been touched, but who is being assaulted a lot are the poor and the African descent,” he said.
