This Friday – August 15 – the official data of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter of this year will be known and in the prelimation that the DANE reveals these results, the bets are directed towards the Colombian economy would have resumed a greater rate of growth in the second quarter of 2025, mainly supported by household spending and dynamism of the services sector.
Portfolio compiled the projections of five analysis centers and found that in Their vast majority point to an annual expansion range between 2.6%and 3.2%, which would challenge five quarters of positive variations and three with a growth greater than 2%; that ultimately could be interpreted as a reactivation.
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However, analysts warn that the rebound would continue to settle in sectors that are not very intensive in capital and with low impact on productivity, while investment and branches such as construction and mining remain lagging behind.
The rank of projections
Bancolombia provides that GDP has grown 2.9% annually between April and June, in line with its real -time indicator and above its previous projection of 2.3%; highlighting that aftercitting quarterly growth It would accumulate eight periods in positive terrain, with the last three around 0.8% and 0.9%.
Consumption would be the protagonist of GDP growth.
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On the other hand, Corficolombiana reviewed its estimate to 3.2% per year, from the 2.5% calculated at the beginning of the year, also exceeding the market consensus, which is around 2.4%.
The Bank of the Republic, in its report sent to Congress, estimates an expansion Near 2.6% for the second quarter, based on the data that have been seen so far, which has been supported by the good behavior of agricultural services and activities, along with downward inflation and improvements in the confidence of homes and companies.
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Scotiabank Colpatria, although it does not deliver a specific figure, awaits a positive result driven by retail trade and the consumption of durable and semiidurable goods and the BBVA Research projects for the set of 2025 a growth of 2.3%, with private consumption as the main engine, and anticipates an acceleration to 2.7% in 2026.
Consumption, the engine of the semester
The common element in all analysis is the strength of household spending; Point at which, for example, Bancolombia points out that the recovery of domestic demand and consumption has boosted several macrosector, with a notable impulse of retail trade, which recorded an average annual average increase in the quarter, the highest of its historical series.
Consumption would be the protagonist of GDP growth.
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These experts identify contributions from financial, real estate and public administration activities, as well as a rebound in the 1.4% annual manufacturing; that could play as a tail wind for GDP, which carries several quarters with modest advances and a cautious expectation by the economic study centers.
Likewise, Corficolombiana details that private consumption has gained advantage Faced with investment and public spending, with a growth supported by the increase in labor income, the reduction of interest rates for consumption and a still significant flow of remittances.
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“However, the concentration of growth in consumption raises risks for its sustainability, so it is necessary for a greater prominence of productive sectors with a high multiplier effect, such as industry, construction and the mining-energy,” they said from Corfi in their report.
The Bank of the Republic also highlights the role of private consumption, which in the first quarter grew 4.4% per year, above the total GDP, and exceeded its pre -overman trend, stating that the impulse came from the highest available income thanks to remittances, better coffee revenues, The real increase in minimum wage and a partial recovery of consumer confidence.
Consumption would be the protagonist of GDP growth.
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Head services
In the different projections reviewed by Portfolio, the GDP rebound is clearly supported by tertiary activities; Taking into account that in April and May, according to Corficolombiana, the economy grew 2.6% per year, promoted by trade, financial and insurance services, public administration and entertainment.
The same entity emphasizes that “the entertainment added value is 92% Above its prepaandia level and has grown seven times faster than GDP, with a strong contribution of online bets and games, in addition to the recovery of face -to -face concerts and shows. ”
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Bancolombia agrees that services have been key support for economic dynamism, with public administration and recreation growing in April and May at annual rates of 2.1% and 3.1%, respectively; While the Bank of the Republic adds to transport and accommodation as branches with good performance, driven by domestic trade and greater mobility.
In the primary sector, Bancolombia projects a mixed behavior in which agriculture would have been favored by good climatic conditions, especially in coffee, while mining remained affected by falls in the production of coal and oil. Corficolombiana estimates that in June the primary sector contracted 1.5% per year, dragged by A 22.4% collapse in coffee production and a 5.1% reduction in oil pumping.
Consumption would be the protagonist of GDP growth.
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On the other hand, the manufacturing industry would show recovery signals and because of this, analysts estimate an annual advance of 1.4% in the second quarter, supported by domestic demand and lower interest rates.
Corficolombiana identifies an industrial growth correlated with an increase of 3.9% In the industry’s energy demand, which suggests continuity of the rebound in June and the Bank of the Republic indicates that investment in machinery and equipment has reached prepaandemics levels, contrasting with the construction lag.
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The bad hour in two sectors
Construction and mining could continue to be the great brakes of the economy, since according to projections, investment in housing and buildings would not recover, while civil works would maintain a better rhythm. Meanwhile, mining would complete more than a year of falls. In this sense, BBVA anticipates that the machinery and equipment would lead recovery in the short term, with a subsequent impulse of civil and non -residential works in 2025 and 2026.
Likewise, the trade balance would continue to deteriorate due to the increase in imports, especially durable goods and machinery, which would expand the external deficit and Although these purchases would support the investment, they would reduce growth from net external demand.
Consumption would be the protagonist of GDP growth.
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With all this, the challenge for the second semester would be to sustain consumption in even high interest rates and an uncertain global context; While factors such as lower remittance entry, shocks in food and exchange volatility could affect the rhythm. The key would be to convert the projected rebound into a more balanced recovery, with more investment and productive diversification for solid and sustainable growth.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
