ECONOMY: The IMACEC for January surprises and recovers by growing after four months of falls

He imaceche indicator of economic activity in Chile, has surprised by showing an increase of 0.4% in January 2023, after four consecutive months of falls. The seasonally adjusted series also showed an increase of 0.5% compared to the previous month.

Despite these positive results, trade registered a 3.2% drop, while services and mining were the main drivers of growth. In this article, we will analyze in detail the behavior of Imacec in January 2023 and its impact on the Chilean economy.

Imacec surprises in January: grows after four months of falls

The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (Imacec) is a key tool to measure the health of the Chilean economy. According to preliminary data published by the Central Bank of Chile, in January 2023 the Imacec grew by 0.4% compared to the same month of the previous year. This result has come as a surprise to many, since a continuation of the fall experienced in the last four months was expected.

Although the increase in the Imacec in January is good news, it is important to note that the seasonally adjusted series has grown only 0.5% compared to the previous month, indicating that there is still some instability in the Chilean economy.

When analyzing the components of the Imacec, it can be seen that services and mining were the main drivers of growth in January, while trade registered a fall of 3.2%. In particular, retail trade was the most affected sector, with lower sales in supermarkets, department stores and specialized food and beverage establishments.

On the other hand, the production of goods grew by 1.6%, driven by the performance of mining, which increased by 4.0%. The manufacturing industry and the rest of goods also showed growth of 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively.

Despite these positive results, the non-mining Imacec decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous year. In addition, the seasonally adjusted series for the production of goods did not change compared to the previous month, which indicates a certain stability in this sector.

production of goods

The production of goods in January 2023 grew by 1.6%, driven by the performance of mining, which increased by 4.0%. The manufacturing industry also presented growth of 0.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the production of goods showed no variation compared to the previous month due to the compensation between the fall in other goods and the increase in mining and industry.

Trade

Commercial activity presented a decrease of 3.2%, a result explained by retail trade, where lower sales in supermarkets, department stores and specialized food and beverage establishments stood out. Meanwhile, wholesale trade did not register variation, driven by the increase in food sales that were offset by the fall in the rest of its components. The seasonally adjusted figures showed growth of 1.1% compared to the previous month, driven by automotive and wholesale trade.

Services

Services increased by 1.6%, a result mainly explained by the performance of personal services and, to a lesser extent, by business services. In seasonally adjusted terms, service activities showed growth of 0.7% compared to the previous month, driven mainly by personal services.

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