The Brazilian economy grew 3.5% in 2024, according to the estimate of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). The data was released on Monday (17) by the GDP monitor, a study that brings the preview of GDP behavior, set of all goods and services produced in the country.
In December, the expansion was 0.3% compared to November. Already the fourth quarter was up 0.4% compared to the third quarter, pointing to slowdown, since in the second and third quarter the expansions had been higher (1.4% and 0.8%, respectively).
In the accumulated 2024, there was growth in all components of the economy, except agriculture (falling 2.5%), which was the 2023 locomotive.
“Industry, services and families consumption presented even better results in 2024 than the high growths recorded in 2023. It can be said that in 2024, in terms of economic activity, Brazil had a great result,” he says The research coordinator, economist Juliana Trece.
With this result, Brazil has four years in a row of the growth of the economy. The last drop was 3.3% in 2020. In 2023, GDP expanded 3.2%.
Sectors
Family consumption showed up 5.2% last year. The so -called gross fixed capital formation (FBCF), an indicator that reflects the level of investment, such as machinery and equipment purchases, grew 7.6%. Exports showed up 3.7%.
Imports, which act as GDP reducer, since imported goods and services are no longer produced in Brazil being supplied by other countries grew 14.3%.
In values, Brazilian GDP reached R $ 11.655 trillion, the largest in the historical series. GDP per capita of 2024 – division of the total economy by the number of inhabitants – was R $ 56,796, also the largest in the historical series.
The productivity of the economy was R $ 100,699 in 2024, 0.3% below that observed in 2023 and 3.3% lower than 2013, the highest point ever reached.
The investment rate of the economy was estimated at 17.2%, above that recorded in 2023 (16.4%).
For 2025
Despite 2024 with “great result”, economist Juliana Trece points out that 2025 has internal and external challenges for the Brazilian economy.
“On the inside, high interest rates, with negative effects on economic activity, mainly reach investments. In the external environment, new rates of tariffs can compromise the level of exports. ”
Since September last year, Brazil has faced a discharge trajectory of the basic interest rate, Selic, an instrument of the Central Bank to control inflation.
The higher the interest, the greater the potential to curb inflation, but with the side effect of discouraging investments and growth in the economy, which directly affects job creation. Selic is 13.25% per year.
Because of the behavior of inflation, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) already foresees another increase in a percentage point in March. From 12 months to January, official inflation total 4.56%, above the Government’s goal. In December, the accumulated was 4.83%.
The other challenge cited by the economist is the commercial tariff war Unleashed by US President Donald Trump. The world’s largest economy has decided that it will apply rates for foreign products entering the United States such as steel and aluminum. Brazilian ethanol has also been threatened with surcharge.
Official result
The GDP monitor, prepared by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) of FGV, is one of the studies that serve as a preview of the real behavior of the Brazilian economy. Another survey is the Central Bank’s economic activity index (IBC-BR), also released on Monday.
According to the Central Bank, the Economy closed 2024 with an expansion of 3.8%.
The official result of GDP is presented quarterly by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The 2024 data will be known on March 7.
