At an annual rate, the IGAE -important for estimating the gross domestic product- grew 4.79% compared to October 2021, but this growth was lower than that observed in September (5.12%).
According to a Monex analysis, this could represent the beginning of a period of stagnation in the economy. The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity estimates that there will be a decrease of 0.1% in November:
“The last quarter could be the weakest and open the door to scenarios of further deterioration in 2023, a year for which the probability of a recession remains quite high.”
The fall in economic activity in November was caused by a decline in the primary and tertiary sectors (2.62% and 0.09%), respectively, while industry advanced 0.36%, at a monthly rate.
At a disaggregated level, the drop in commerce, professional services and recreational services stands out, which “could reflect the generalization of adverse pressures for demand.”
Even with these signs of cooling in the economy, the activity of the past months was robust enough to expect global growth of between 2.5% and 3% throughout 2022, Monex said.
