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October 12, 2024
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Economist Víctor Álvarez warns that exchange rate anchoring encourages inflation

Economist Víctor Álvarez warns that exchange rate anchoring encourages inflation

Víctor Álvarez points out that the high legal reserve does not allow citizens to have access to credit to purchase goods. He explained that the increase in the price of the dollar is between 8 and 9%


Economist Víctor Álvarez warned on Friday, October 11, that the authorities’ policy of keeping the exchange rate anchored to avoid inflation is contrary because recently there has been an increase in the official and parallel rates.

In an interview granted to Radio UnionÁlvarez indicated that if the anti-inflationary policy of maintaining the value of the dollar continues to be evident, which is also seen with the restrictions around the high legal reserve, it will not be possible to boost the economy or provide credits.

«The Government is trying to avoid the rise of the dollar by removing the bolivars from circulation, and to do so, one of the instruments is that (the exchange rate peg). For every 100 bolivars it captures, the bank is obliged to freeze 70; “You cannot lend them to finance production or to finance credit,” he said.

For this reason, he warned that this situation prevents Venezuelans from having financing to buy goods such as washing machines, refrigerators or vehicles, just as he regretted that the limit they are giving on credit cards only allows for small payments.

He explained that the increase in the price of the dollar is between 8 and 9% while that of the rest of the products reaches triple, so there is an exchange rate lag.

*Read also: UCAB situation report: Political instability is heading the economy towards recession

«If you synchronize the increase in the price of the dollar with that of other goods, it would give you 120, which should be the price of the currency. “Economic agents know that this is unsustainable, that sooner or later there will be a need to apply the exchange rate adjustment,” argued Álvarez.

The parallel dollar was not the only one that soared this week. The official market closed on Friday, October 11 with the biggest increase so far this year, in just one day it increased 3.62%, going from Bs 37.52 to Bs 38.88.

Between Friday, October 4 and Friday, October 11, the official dollar, reported by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), increased 5.13%, the most abrupt increase during 2024, which means a devaluation of the currency of 4.8% .

This Friday the official market closed with one dollar at 38.88 bolivars, however, it is still well below the parallel. The gap is 22.2% or what is equivalent to 8.67 bolivars, because the dollar in the unofficial market was located at Bs 47.55 until this Friday, October 11.

*Read also: The gap between the parallel dollar and the official dollar widens: almost 10 bolivars difference

In the last week the parallel went from Bs 44.73 to Bs 47.55, which represents an increase of 6.30%. Specialists explain that the rise in the market is due to the pressure generated by the payment of bonuses or bonuses; in the last week alone the Government granted three bonuses in the Patria System.

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