The Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) dropped 4.9 points in September to 111.7 points, the lowest level since November 2019, from 105.1 points. The data were released today (30) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre/FGV).
Ibre/FGV economist Anna Carolina Gouveia said the IIE-Br is now just a little above what can be considered a comfortable level of uncertainty (below 110 points) for the first time since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to her, the result is motivated by the improvement in the scenario for economic activity and the job market, in addition to the reduction in inflationary pressure in recent months.
“The electoral framework seems to have little influence on the indicator so far and the convergence of the IIE-Br to levels below 110 points will depend on the prospects for the continuity of the current growth phase and for the post-election political scenario”, he explains, in note the economist.
“In September, the Media component dropped 4.5 points to 110.6 points, the lowest level since November 2019, contributing negatively with 3.9 points to the aggregate index. The Expectations component, which measures the dispersion in expert forecasts for macroeconomic variables, dropped 3.8 points to 111.6 points, the lowest level since March this year, with a negative contribution of 1 point to the evolution of the IIE- Br”, says the FGV.