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Economic slowdown in 2023, a scenario that gains strength

Economic slowdown in 2023, a scenario that gains strength

The global slowdown of the economy in 2023 It is a scenario that is gaining more and more strength in the face of the consolidation of the macroeconomic phenomena that have lasted throughout 2022, such as high inflation, the policy of rising interest rates to control it, and the war in Ukraine.

(Read: The slowdown and interest rates, the great global challenges).

And so, as the end of the year approaches, more and more entities cut their forecasts for gross domestic product growth for the coming year.
The most recent to do so was the World Trade Organization itself, which, this Wednesday, corrected its forecast of world GDP growth for 2022, which will be 2.8%, while cutting to 2.3% the expectation for 2023 from 3.2%, previously issued in April.

At the same time, lowered to 1% from 3.4% its forecasts for world trade growth for 2023, as a consequence of the slowdown in the world’s main economies due to the war in Ukraine and the strengthening of monetary policy.

(See: Colombia’s growth would slow to 2.1% in 2023: World Bank).

Decrease.

The organization’s analysts also revised upward their estimates for 2022, going from 3% in April to 3.5% in October.

The organization’s CEO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, noted that a reduction in global supply chains “it would only deepen inflationary pressures, leading to slower economic growth and lower living standards over time”.

A week ago, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Ocde) delivered its balance of perspectives in which cut the goal for economic growth for next year to 2.2%.

The institution also revised upwards the inflation forecasts, to 8.2% and 6.6% in 2023.

The world economy has lost momentum in the wake of Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. GDP growth has stalled in many economies and economic indicators point to a prolonged slowdown“, said the secretary general of the OECD, Mathias Cormann, according to the press release.

In addition to the challenges mentioned, the OECD adds to “the ongoing adjustments in Chinese real estate markets, combined with the high level of corporate debt in China and the continuation of the country’s” zero Covid “policy”.

(Keep reading: Loss in the final stretch: economy will end the year with decrease).

This week, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) also warned on the pressures in which the world finds itself and cut by 0.1 percentage points su growth forecast for this year to 2.5%, while its estimate for 2023 fell to 2.2%. According to this report, Latin America would be one of the regions most affected, with a slowdown from 2.6% to 1.1% in 2023.

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