The country’s regions showed widespread economic growth, with the exception of the Southeast, which registered relative stability. The assessment is by the Central Bank (BC) and is included in the Regional Bulletin, a quarterly publication that presents the conditions of the economy by regions and by some states in the country, published today (2), in Brasilia.
The stability of the Southeast in the second quarter was due to the decline in financial services and the slowdown in the expansion of trade. On the other hand, nationally, growth was more widespread than in the first quarter with significant expansions in other regions.
According to the bulletin, the Southeast economy slowed down in the second quarter, with the Regional Economic Activity Index (IBCR) changing negatively by 0.1% in the quarter, compared to the immediately previous quarter (1.6%). The BC also informed that the result was influenced by the performance of São Paulo, which fell by 0.5%. The other states in the Southeast showed progress, especially Minas Gerais, with a 1.5% increase in activity. In the 12-month period up to June, the region’s economy recorded an increase of 2.6%.
“The increase in retail sales slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, when it had grown 1.5%. There was progress in five of the ten segments surveyed, especially equipment and supplies for office, IT and communication, in addition to fuel. On the other hand, sectors that are more sensitive to credit and interest rate hikes, such as construction material, vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and furniture and home appliances, showed a retraction”, explained the bulletin.
According to the BC, the service sector continued the post-pandemic recovery process, with progress in all segments, especially services provided to families. “In this sense, the volume of non-financial services expanded by 2% in the second quarter, maintaining the good performance observed in the previous three months (1.8%) and surpassing the pre-pandemic level,” he noted.
The Central Bank’s assessment is that temporary income support policies and aid given by the federal government to the population tend to favor expansion in household consumption, with positive impacts on commerce and the service sector. On the other hand, “the industry must still pass on the difficulties in the supply chains of inputs and the increase in production costs”.
Recovery in the South
in the south of the country, where the performance of trade and services stood out, there was a recovery from the sharp drop observed in the previous quarter, related to the fall in the soybean and corn crops. According to the BC, in addition to the end of the appropriation of summer crops, there was a more intense recovery in commerce, construction and in segments of service provision, especially to families, and a slight increase in industrial production.
Commerce performed well in the southern region of the country – Tânia Rêgo/Agência Brasil
The region’s IBCR shows that the economy of the South grew 2.8% in the second quarter compared to the previous one (-2.9%). In 12 months, it is the one that presents the smallest expansion among the regions (1%), influenced by the modest results of agriculture and industry.
The IBCR of the North region changed 1.5% in the second quarter in relation to the previous quarter, influenced by the expansion of the service sector. The highlight is Pará, which grew 1.9% on the same basis of comparison, driven by construction and services to companies, while the indicator in Amazonas expanded 1.7%, driven by services to families and accommodation and food. In 12 months, the activity indicator in the region accumulated growth of 1.7%.
In the case of the Northeast, there was a 1% expansion in the region’s IBCR in the second quarter of 2022, reflecting the continued recovery of the services sector, in addition to the favorable performance of agriculture and civil construction.
“In the same sense, the manufacturing industry accumulates significant expansion, with three consecutive quarters of growth, driven mainly by the oil derivatives sector. Occupation continues to rise in the formal and informal labor market, but income recovery has been slower than the national average”, explains the bulletin. In twelve months through June, the activity indicator in the Northeast accumulated a high of 3.5%.
The Midwest economy continued on a growth path in the second quarter of the year. The region’s IBCR increased 2% compared to the previous quarter, when it grew 1.1%. According to the BC, the highlights in the region are commerce, agriculture, civil construction and services to families. In the twelve-month period, the Central-West IBCR increased by 4.6%.
“In summary, in the second quarter, economic activity continued to show a favorable performance and more widespread regionally, with the exception of the Southeast, where there was a loss of rhythm. The labor market continued to recover, with a sharp drop in the unemployment rate in all regions in the last twelve months. It is worth mentioning the intense deceleration of inflation in the quarter, influenced by the reduction in the prices of gasoline and electric energy, as a result of tax exemptions. Prospectively, temporary income support policies should stimulate aggregate demand in the short term, impacting activity in the second half of the year”, said the BC in the Regional Bulletin.
Evolution of livestock
In the publication, the Central Bank also presented a box with the results of beef cattle in 2021 and the first half of 2022, based on the evolution of slaughter, foreign sales, costs of main inputs and prices.
In 2021, there was an expansion in the production of pigs and chickens, while that of cattle reduced for the second consecutive year. “Maintaining the upward trend, the slaughter of pigs reached 4.9 million tons in 2021, 9.3% above 2020, and that of chickens reached a new record, totaling 14.6 million tons, a growth of 6.2% compared to the previous year, with a recovery in consumption Sunethics and expansion in exports”, informs the bulletin.
In relation to cattle ranching, “in a context of limited supply and high prices”, the 7.5 million tons of carcasses slaughtered in 2021 represented a 4.7% decrease, compared to 2020. The BC said that cattle production is led by the Center-West, followed by the Southeast and North, and those of pork and chicken are concentrated in the South.
Cattle and swine
In the first half of 2022, there was growth of 4.1%, 6.4% and 1.5% in the slaughtered volume of cattle, pork and chicken, respectively, compared to the same period in 2021.
“Internal prices in 2021 followed the trajectory of prices for soybeans and corn, the main inputs for animal feed, in a year of frustration for the Brazilian cereal crop. At the beginning of 2022, the increase observed in the prices of commodities (commodities) intensified with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (from of February 2022) and its consequences on world grain production and export estimates, in addition to logistical difficulties, including those arising from new lockdowns (total closure) in China [em razão da covid-19]. In the second quarter, there was a reduction in international prices for soybeans and corn (entry of Monday harvest), favoring production”, highlighted the BC.
Revenues from meat exports recorded a good performance in 2021, increasing 14.7% compared to 2020, the largest portion coming from beef, especially from the Midwest and Southeast, while the South was highlighted in pork and chicken.
“The outlook for national livestock production remains positive, either due to the expected behavior of external demand or the gradual recovery of the market. Suneconomy, benefiting from more robust economic activity,” the bulletin reported.
