The FGV GDP Monitor indicated a 0.2% decline in economic activity in August compared to the previous month. In the interannual comparison there was growth of 3.4% in August and 4.1% in the moving quarter ending in the same month. The accumulated result in the 12 months up to July was 2.8%. The numbers were released this Tuesday (15) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre/FGV).
For the research coordinator, Juliana Trece, the reason for the economy’s contraction for the second consecutive month is the stagnation of industry and the retraction of services. According to her, among the three major economic activities, only agriculture improved in the comparison between August and July.
Juliana added that on the demand side, progress was recorded in most components. The lower levels of exports of agricultural products and mineral extraction impacted export numbers, which showed a significant drop of 2.5% and was the exception.
“Based on this, although from a demand perspective most components had a positive performance, negative net exports surpassed this growth, a relevant result for the drop in GDP in August”, he explained.
The research indicated that the behavior of exports of agricultural products and mineral extraction, which had a joint influence of around 8 percentage points (pp) on the positive quarterly performance of exports last year, contributed only 1.2 pp in the quarter ended in August, being the lowest contribution since February 2023.
Consumption
Family consumption increased in different types, a movement noted throughout this year. According to Ibre, what contributed most to the performance of the quarter ended in August was services, although non-durable and durable goods also contributed significantly.
Still in the quarter ended in August, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) advanced significantly and the highlight was the performance of the machinery and equipment segment. According to Ibre, since the second quarter, this segment has contributed positively, in part, “due to the depressed comparison base in 2023”.
Despite the smaller impact, the construction and other GFCF segments also influenced performance.
Imports registered a relevant increase in all types. The highlight was intermediate goods that drove growth. Consumer goods, services and capital goods were in the same movement of advancement.
GDP-FGV Monitor
The monitor estimated that, in monetary terms, the 2024 GDP accumulated up to July, in current values, reached R$7.570 trillion.
In the series at current values, the investment rate in August 2024 was 18.1%. “Above average investment rates since 2000 and since 2015”, concluded Ibre.
The indicator estimates Brazilian GDP monthly in volume and value and was created so that society would have a monthly GDP reference, based on the same methodology as the IBGE National Accounts.
“The series begins in 2000 and incorporates all available information from the National Accounts (Tables of Resources and Uses, up to 2021, last year of publication) as well as information from the Quarterly National Accounts, up to the last published quarter (second quarter of 2024). To carry out these calculations, around 500 volume and price information are used, combined with the latest Resources and Uses Table available at the level of 52 activities and 109 products”, informed the institute, in a note.
