The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) adjusted its regional growth projection upwards for this year, increasing it two tenths to 2.4%compared to the August estimate, after identifying “a less adverse international environment”.
According to the United Nations agency, based in Santiago, “This adjustment in the projections reflects a less adverse international environment than that forecast in April, but does not alter the underlying diagnosis: the external impulse to growth has slowed and the region continues to grow at a low rate”.
For 2026ECLAC maintains its growth forecast at 2.3%.
With this, they are already three upward revisions that ECLAC has carried out since the US president came to power donald trumpwho started a trade war with several of its main partnersincluding Latin America.
The organization explained that the revisions are due to “modifications in the international trade growth scenarios due to the effects of the tariff announcements made by the United States” already “adjustments in the growth prospects of the region’s main trading partners, whose pace, although it has slowed compared to 2024, registers improvements”.
Venezuela, Paraguay and Argentina, the most notable growth
According to new figures from ECLAC, Venezuela (6%), Paraguay (4.5%) and Argentina (4.3%) will lead economic growth of the region this year, followed by Panama (4.1%), Costa Rica (3.8%), Guatemala (3.7%), Honduras (3.3%) and Dominican Republic (3.4%).
In intermediate positions are located Peru (3.2%), Nicaragua (3.1%), Ecuador (3%), El Salvador (2.8%), Chile (2.6%), Brazil (2.5%), Colombia (2.5%) and Uruguay (2.3%).
At the end of the list, although with positive figures, are the Caribbean islands (1.9%) —not including Guyana due to its oil boom—, Bolivia (1%) and Mexico (0.6%). Instead, Cuba (-1.5%) and Haiti (-2.3%) They will be the only countries that will decrease this year, according to ECLAC.
The Latin American region, considered the most unequal in the worldhill 2023 and 2024 with a growth of 2.3%.
If the new projection is confirmed, the average regional GDP growth between 2017 and 2026 would be 1.6%according to the institution.
To get out of what is defined as “low growth capacity trap”ECLAC proposes “a more accelerated productive transformation that boosts economic growth and productivity, diversifies economies and generates more and better jobs”.
