Added to this is the slowdown in consumption and investment in the country itself, as well as uncertainty in the international environment and a reduction in public spending.
For 2025the Growth estimate for Mexico is even lower with 1.4%.
ECLAC points out that there are factors that can modify the estimate downwards or upwards, associated with the pace of global economic activity, the attraction of national and foreign investment and the international availability of inputs for production.
Although in the foreign investment part, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, executive secretary of ECLAC, says that by itself it will not make a significant change in economic growth, it has to be accompanied by other factors such as strengthening the workforce and productivity, of SMEs and internal public and private investment.
“(The investment announcements) are generally very good news, but it must be taken into account that this is equivalent to an average of 2% of Mexico’s gross domestic product, (…) it is a very large country and many more announcements would be required to move the needle.”
It states that in the first half of 2024, Mexico’s GDP increased by 1.5%, in its timely estimate and with seasonally adjusted figures, compared to that recorded in the same period in 2023.
And between January and May 2024, private consumption increased by an average of 3.7% year-on-year (compared to 5.2% in the same period in 2023), supported by rising wages and the increase, albeit slowing, in family remittance flows.
While gross fixed investment grew by an average of 10.2% in the same period of 2023, it increased by 13.3%), influenced by public investment and the strengthening of investments in supply chains linked, in part, to the relocation of investments.
Overall, Latin America and the Caribbean will continue to grow at a low rate this year, at an average rate of 1.8%.
ECLAC highlights that over the past decade, Latin American countries have shown low economic growth, with an average rate of 0.9% in the period 2015-2024.
In light of this, he said that boosting growth is a key task for the region to be able to respond to the environmental, social and labour challenges it currently faces.
