ECLAC projections point to “two additional years of economic hardship” for the island, said economist Pedro Monreal.
Miami, United States. -The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects a critical panorama for the Cuban economy, with a contraction of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of -1.5% in 2025 and a tiny growth of just 0.1% in 2026.
This is indicated by the report Economic Study of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025released this week, where Cuba appears among countries with the worst economic performance in the region.
According to data from the report, the stagnation projected for Cuba is only negatively surpassed by Haiti, which is expected to register a GDP drop of -2.7% in 2025 and -0.7% in 2026. Meanwhile, the regional average points to a growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, which places the island well below the Latin American and Caribbean average.
After analyzing the report, Cuban economist Pedro Monreal He stood out in x that “only Haiti would be worse” than Cuba in the region, and stressed that ECLAC projections point to “additional two years of economic hardship” for the island.
In addition to the poor economic performance, ECLAC classifies Cuba as a “country with chronic inflation” and positions it in the third place of nations with the highest inflationary rates in 2024. Cuba appears with projected inflation of 238%, preceded only by Venezuela and Haiti. This category includes countries with “such bad data that were excluded from the calculation of regional and subregional averages.”
In 2024, according to the same table, ECLAC already projected a growth of Cuban GDP of just 1.2%, well below the regional average of 2.2% for that year. The country thus remains on a path of economic stagnation, aggravated by internal structural problems, high inflation and an unfavorable international environment.
The exclusion of Cuba of regional aggregate calculations not only obeys the bad economic performance, but also to the lack of transparency in official statistics. Monreal has indicated on other occasions that the absence of reliable data makes it difficult to prepare comparative analysis and the formulation of appropriate policies.
ECLAC data confirms what various experts were warning: the country is heading to a new biennium of sustained crisis, without clear signals of recovery.
