Argentine exports could exceed US$ 86,700 million in 2022, which will mean, if materialized, a jump of 11% compared to those dispatched last year due to the rise in international prices, estimated this Tuesday the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
In its report on the Economic Situation, the stock market entity projected exports for US$ 86,737 million, which represents an increase in value of US$ 8,645 million compared to 2021, and this new forecast was US$ 1,896 million above what was calculated in your March report.
Agroexports
Of this total, agro-industrial exports represent 47% of the total, whose amount would rise to US$41,055 million, US$3,006 million more than last year.
As explained by the BCR, “The persistence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to support the level of international prices.”
In this sense, he explained that “the interruption in agro-industrial shipments from the Black Sea, the uncertainty surrounding the productive results of Ukraine in this cycle and the sanctions against Russia, keep the export prices of many agro-commodities exported by Argentina high. “.
For example, in February, the export prices of the soybean complex showed increases of 9% for beans and flour, while oil presented a rise of 4%.
For their part, corn and wheat rose 2%, which strengthened export projections.
These rises also impacted the local values of grainswhich greatly boosted food prices, in a context of high inflation, especially since the war began in Eastern Europe.
That is why, given the escalation in the price of wheat, for example, the national government decided to implement a trust to ensure the supply of flour in the domestic market at pre-war values, and programs such as Prices and Careful Cuts were relaunched, including in nearby shops.
At the same time, aware of the impact of this situation, the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, announced a project to tax the “unexpected income” in Argentine companies that benefited from the rise in prices due to the war.
Economy Minister Guzmán announced a project to tax the “unexpected income” in Argentine companies benefited by the rise in prices due to the war in Europe
In keeping with prices, “exported quantities are expected to be underpinned compared to previous estimates, hand in hand with improvements in the productive prospects for corn and an export volume above that expected in the soybean industrialization,” said the Rosario Stock Exchange. .
Of the US$ 41,000 million that agriculture would contribute in exports, more than half of the projected income would correspond to the soybean complex with US$ 23,745 million, US$ 577 million more than what was calculated a month ago.
For its part, the corn complex would reach shipments of US$ 9,650 million, almost US$ 1,000 million more than what was expected a month ago and could exceed shipments of 2021 by US$ 600 million, reaching a new record.
Projections for the wheat complex reach an increase of US$ 328 million to US$ 4,741 million for the current year.
Projections for the wheat complex reach an increase of US$ 328 million to US$ 4,741 million for this year
The sunflower complex would reach exports of US$1.84 billion, US$512 million more than forecast a month ago and US$538 million above the 2021 mark.
Another sector that showed good results was the oil-petrochemical sector, whose exports “reach thirteen-year highs,” the BCR said.
“Hand in hand with Vaca Muerta, the export of the various products that make up the complex reached maximum levels not seen since 2009,” the report said.
With almost 1.7 million tons exported between January and February of this year, the export of oil was the great driver of the complex’s foreign trade in the first two months of the year.
In values, during the first two months of the year, US$ 1,073 million were exported, a jump of 108% compared to the same period in 2021, when shipments were registered for US$ 515 million.
