The declining trajectory of the unemployment rate that has been occurring in 2024 is consistent, says the coordinator of Household Surveys at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Adriana Beringuy. The decline occurs from the quarter ending in February 2024 to the period ending in November.
According to the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), prepared by IBGE, the percentage went from 7.8% in the quarter ended in February to 6.1% in the period between September and November this year, which represents the lowest level in the historical series started in 2012.
“Based on the movement we have in 2024, it is very consistent and shows precisely the capacity of the Brazilian labor market which, even with all its diversity, has a very large contingent of informal workers, but despite this, the number of employees has been increasing with a signed document. With all its particularities, the Brazilian job market has responded quite satisfactorily in the year 2024”, said Adriana this Friday (27), in the interview in which she presented data from the Continuous PNAD for the semester ending in November.
For Adriana, the downward movement well spread across economic activities is one of the explanations for the maintenance of the decline. “There is no concentration on a specific activity. It has more professionally qualified services, specifically, but it also includes construction and domestic services. There is a diversity of economic activities that are expressing their demand for workers”, he stated.
Adriana Beringuy highlighted that this movement will have to be monitored throughout 2025, always looking at the set of information on economic indicators, such as the income trajectory. “We will have to consider all of this throughout the year 2025 to have the analysis. The movement towards maintaining stability will depend on the macroeconomic context and also on how much economic activities will demand from the employed population to maintain this current level of consumption , as well as, even, its own expansion.”
According to Adriana, each activity has its particularities, as in the case of agriculture, an activity that requires few workers and has been reducing this need even further due to climate issues. There is also construction activity, which expanded significantly this year. “This is because there was a greater demand for construction and buildings. The construction sector was more in demand and so was industry. It will be the behavior of these economic activities, associated with workers’ income, that will really point to either the maintenance or the expansion of these indicators.”
She added that, in addition to the quantitative rates that have been recording records, there are characteristics related to the form of insertion, as is the case with the growth in the number of employees with a formal contract, or even the level of income that has continued to grow. “That’s why we see this consistency throughout 2024.”
Adriana also highlighted that the job market has its seasonal movements, like what usually occurs at the beginning of each year, with an increase in unemployment. “At the beginning of each year, this indicator will expand and then retreat, but, excluding seasonality, there are factors that can really influence it, be it the maintenance of this very low level of the occupancy rate, its maintenance, the continued decline or its expansion. This will depend on the performance of economic activities that have been fundamental to this labor market response.”
