Doubts are raised about the electoral results announced by the CNE using mathematics

The difference in votes between Maduro and González is 704,114, according to the CNE, which gives the current governor the victory with 5,150,092 votes and the opposition candidate with 4,445,978, so the 20% not counted triples the difference between both candidates. With this data, the result given by Amoroso could be described as a trend that is not irreversible.

Economists and political representatives took note and calculated the results announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE) that declared Nicolás Maduro the winner of the presidential elections this Sunday, July 28. With mathematics in hand, they raised their doubts about the figures given by Elvis Amoroso, president of the electoral body, since with 20% of the votes that have not yet been counted, there is a possibility of victory for the opposition candidate Edmundo González.

For the economist Alejandro Grisanti, if the participation in these elections was 59%, it means that 12 million 600 thousand people voted in Venezuela. Of that number, with 80% of the votes counted, Nicolás Maduro obtained 5 million 150 thousand votes, Edmundo González Urrutia about 4 million 450 thousand and other candidates 460 thousand. That is, the supposed The difference between the two candidates is 700 thousand votes when 2.6 million votes remain to be counted.

«Clearly the supposed difference so far is not conclusive, nor is it irreversible (…) I want to make it absolutely clear, I understand that it is not intuitive, but the math is compelling. With 40% of the votes, the probability that they can commit fraud without the opposition being able to show evidence simply tends to zero: It is impossible. We will see when the day dawns,” Grisanti said on his X account.

On the other hand, Juan Barreto, a member of the Redes party, agreed that there is a very high number of voters who have not yet been counted and who have yet to be assigned to the candidates.

By doing his own calculations, he points out that there are still 2,393,268 votes that have not been counted. “Who got those almost 2.5 million votes?” Barreto asked.

Forgive my ignorance in mathematics…
But I need you to please explain it to me again, I’m just slow.
Number of voters 21,105,157
% Participation 59%
59% represents 12,452,042

Mature 5,150,092.
7,301,959 left

Edmund 4,445,978.…

— Juan Barreto (@juanbarretoc) July 29, 2024

The difference in votes between Maduro and Gonzalez is 704,114, according to the CNE, which gives the current governor the victory with 5,150,092 votes (51.2%) and the opposition candidate with 4,445,978 (44.2%), so the 20% not counted triples the difference between both candidates. With this data, the result given by Amoroso could be described as a trend that is not irreversible.

There are two basic problems with the CNE president’s announcement. 1) Although he called them irreversible, a simple arithmetic operation can be used to prove that this is not the case. 2) The results so far – Monday 2:32am – are not auditable.

— Eugenio G. Martinez (@puzkas) July 29, 2024