A few days ago, the United States Federal Reserve (FED) surprised by raising its interest rate by 75 basis points and did not rule out doing so again in the future. The almost immediate effect was seen in the strengthening of the dollar in the world and Peru was no exception.
So much so that yesterday the greenback closed, in the Peruvian market, at S/3,984, that is, 0.23% more than on Thursday, and this despite the intervention of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) that sold US$89 million.
The Manager of Fixed Income of Prima AFP, Renzo Massa, considered that the exchange rate could continue to rise due to two factors. On the one hand, there is the political risk and on the other the decision of the FED.
Given this situation, he did not rule out that the currency, in the short term, reaches S/4 or S/4.05. It should be noted that the dollar exceeded the S / 4 limit last year, when Pedro Castillo assumed the presidency and appointed Guido Bellido as premier, and only at the end of 2021 did he leave that barrier.
For his part, the chief economist of Scotiabank, Mario Guerrero, stated that the entity he represents maintains its projection of S / 3.95 for the greenback, but they will be attentive to the next decisions made in the northern country.
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“We are going to see how the markets process all these new elements, both the decisions of the FED and of other central banks that we have just seen that they are taking a firmer attitude. We have not scheduled projection revisions, but as long as the exchange rate does not exceed S/3.99, we could maintain our estimate for this year,” he added.
Another consequence of the Fed’s position would be seen in credits. The professor of Economics at the Universidad del Pacífico (UP) Marco Ortiz explained that “it is natural to think that interest rates in dollars in Peru are going to increase.”
He explained that the dollarization of credit is around 30% of total disbursements (although it would have dropped a bit due to Reactiva) and is mainly concentrated in corporate loans and large companies, which would be the most impacted.
However, Ortiz highlighted that, in 2013 and 2015, the BCR implemented an aggressive credit de-dollarization program that was mainly reflected in the de-dollarization ratio of mortgage and vehicle loans. “This good management protects us from the fact that the interest rate affects us even more, especially in the most uncovered or vulnerable segments,” he added.
INTEREST RATE
Analysts stated that the FED hike will not mean that the BCR will increase its reference rate, which is currently at 6.75%.
They recalled that the currency-issuing entity in Peru began raising the rate last year, first by 25 points, then for many months by 50 points, and recently by 25 points again.
For the representative of Prima AFP, if the BCR decides to increase it, it would be up to 7%, but it would remain at that amount for a “prolonged period.”
DATA
-It was confirmed that the US entered a technical recession. ESAN Graduate School of Business professor Jorge Guillén said that this could impact the dollar.
-He indicated that it impacts Peru because the northern country is a trading partner and there is less world production.
