The Argentine economy is going through a new stage of exchange tension, where the value of the dollar Returns the center of the financial debate. In recent weeks, the official exchange rate touched the $ 1,300, a level that the Government tried to establish as a psychological ceiling to avoid a direct impact on inflation.
However, market movements and investor signals suggest that this limit still looks fragile, and could become a new floor if official measures fail to contain the pressure. To stop the escalation of dollarthe Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy deployed a battery of measures.
Among them, the rate of interest rates stands out, both in Lecap tenders and in passive passes operations. In some cases, yields greater than 47% annually were validated, which sought to seduce investors to maintain their pesos positions and avoid dollarize.
In addition, massive sales of future dollar contracts were made, for more than USD 600 million, with the aim of deflating devaluation expectations for July and August. These interventions achieved, at least temporarily, that the dollar It would backed values close to $ 1,280, but the pressure felt again days later, with rebounds that brought him back to the $ 1,290 area.
Another key measure was the decision of the Central Bank to increase lace, that is, the percentage of money that banks must immobilize, for deposits in view of common investment funds (Money Market) and stock market cups.
As of August 1, that lace will rise from 20% to 30%, which seeks to absorb surplus weights and reduce the liquidity that feeds the demand for dollars. This measure will directly impact on the yields of digital wallets and other short -term placements, which were offering attractive rates to savers.
Stability
With fewer incentives to maintain liquid weights, the government expects the pressure on the exchange rate to be moderated. Despite official efforts, the market is still divided. Some analysts consider that $ 1,300 represent a reasonable roof, especially if price stability and fiscal surplus are maintained.
Others, on the other hand, believe that this value has already become a new floor, and that the dollar could continue to rise if factors such as: lower supply of agricultural currencies are combined, for the end of the temporal decline of retentions to soybeans. Greater demand for dollars for electoral coverage and winter vacations. International volatility and falling commodities prices.
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