The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) has recently released the Market Expectations Survey (REM) corresponding to December 2024. This report, prepared with the participation of consulting firms and financial entities, offers updated forecasts on the dollarinflation and other key economic variables for the country.
Among the central axes of this report are the dollar wholesale, inflation and economic activity. According to the expectations of the analysts consulted, the wholesale nominal exchange rate would reach an average of $1,042 per dollar in January 2025, with a monthly increase of 2.1% compared to December 2024.
By December 2025, the forecast places the value of dollar at $1,205, which implies a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. The most prominent specialists, grouped in the so-called Top 10, agreed on similar projections, placing the wholesale exchange rate at $1,043 per dollar in January 2025.
The December REM estimated that general inflation for the last month of 2024 would be 2.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey. In year-on-year terms, analysts projected inflation of 117.8%, slightly lower than estimated in the previous survey.
By 2025, a significant slowdown is expected, with headline inflation projected at 25.9%. The long-term outlook is even more optimistic: 15.3% by 2026 and 10% by 2027. In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the REM anticipated a drop of 2.6% in 2024 compared to the 2023 average, a slight improvement of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
By 2025, year-on-year growth of 4.5% is expected, although the group of most prominent analysts (Top 10) projects a more moderate increase of 3.8%. The expected growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 3.7% and 3%, respectively.
Milei’s Plan
President Javier Milei’s economic plan focuses on reducing inflation and stabilizing the economy through fiscal austerity policies and public debt control.
According to the REM, the official dollar is expected to experience a gradual rise, following a “crawling peg” (controlled devaluation) scheme. This plan seeks to strengthen the Central Bank’s reserves for future economic measures, which could accelerate the lifting of the Cepo, although there is still no scheduled date.
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