The Argentine financial market and the dollar have shown notable movement in recent hours, with a significant rebound in dollar quotes. After the Christmas holiday, the markets have resumed their activity with force, and financial exchange rates have experienced a notable increase.
This increase has been observed both in the dollar MEP as well as in the counted dollar with settlement (CCL), which have reached values of $1070 and $1183, respectively. The MEP dollar, which is obtained through the purchase and sale of financial assets such as bonds or shares, has registered an increase of 0.9% in the last day, accumulating an increase of $94 so far in December.
For his part, the dollar cash with settlement (CCL), which allows the purchase of dollars and their transfer to accounts abroad, has operated on the rise with an increase of 0.8% on the day. In the informal segment, the caves and trees of the City of Buenos Aires have sold the blue dollar for $1,200, maintaining the same price as in the previous closing.
This upward movement in financial dollars has implied an increase in the exchange gap, which today stands at around 11%. The main factor of instability in this context comes from Brazil, with devaluation pressure on the real that has led the Central Bank of that country to intervene in recent weeks with more than $17,000 million, between auctions, interventions and swaps.
The parity in Brazil is 6.17 reais per dollar after the Christmas holiday. On the stock market, shares have shown mixed movements, with slight increases among the notable ones. The best performers have been Loma Negra (1.3%), Pampa Energía (1.1%), Aluar (1%), Banco Macro (0.9%) and Grupo Financiero Galicia (0.7%).
The duo of dollars financial has been accompanied by sales from the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA). On Monday the 23rd, the entity had a negative balance of $179 million, although the accumulated balance in the last five rounds was positive at $346 million.
Reservations
The stock of gross reserves of the BCRA is around $32,550 million, but its net holding, without considering the reserve requirements on dollar deposits, the swap with China and other factors, is negative at around $10,489 million.
The consulting firm Outlier warns that if government deposits are not subtracted, net reserves are estimated to be negative at $4,789 million, but in this case it must be taken into account that at the beginning of January 2025 about $3,000 million will fall due to the payment of Bonares bonds. and global. These maturities are key for the short term and could influence the stability of the dollar in the coming months.
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