The dollar closed today at S/3.768, with an advance of 0.48% compared to Friday’s close, when it stood at S/3.75.
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Gianina Villavicencio, currency brokerage manager at Renta4 SAB, explained that the exchange rate was strongly pressured upwards by the high demand for dollars from local corporations. This led the foreign currency to register a minimum of S/3.7530 and a maximum of S/3.7690 during the day.
In the market, S/216.4 million were traded at an average price of S/3.7655. In response to the volatility, the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) intervened by placing exchange rate swaps for S/70 million at three months.
“Globally, investors are awaiting US employment data due out on Friday. This could influence a Possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month“Villavicencio commented.
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Perspectives and analysis
Mauricio Guzmán, head of Investment Strategy at SURA Investments, warned that the narrow differential between the interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and the BCR does not benefit the sol.
“We remain pessimistic about the sol, as the narrow rate differential with the Fed limits its ability to appreciate,” Guzmán said.
The expert added that the recent annual inflation data in Peru, which is within the BCR’s target range, suggests that further cuts in the local interest rate could occur.
Currently, the BCR rate is at 5.5%, while the Fed rate is in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. A reduction in the BCR rate would make investments in the US more attractive, where the risk is comparatively lower. This could motivate the outflow of capital from Peru to the US, further weakening the sol.
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