A trill of the former director of the Department of Social Prosperity (DPS) and presidential candidate, Gustavo Bolívar, The debate on the price of the dollar in Colombia reopened again and its behavior during the Petro administration. In a publication on his X account, the former official compared the value of the currency on the last day of the Iván Duque government with which he is currently quoted.
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“Duke’s last dollar: $ 4,367. Dollar today, 3 years later: $ 3,891”, Mention the message.
While the weakening of the American currency has been sustained in the last year, There are several background factors that explain this trend beyond the political context.
To better understand the movements that the green ticket has experienced, we will take as a reference the highest and lowest points to which the currency reached since President Gustavo Petro arrived at the Casa de Nariño. This clear, Analyzing both internal and external contextHey the impact he had at the time on the negotiation of the foreign currency.
The high and low
According to the data consolidated by the Bank of the Republic, on August 7, 2022, the day the government of President Gustavo Petro started, the representative rate of the market (TRM) It was located at $ 4,337.28. In the days after its possession, the dollar began to ride up, even reaching historical maximums.
In fact, The American currency managed to be located at the $ 5,000 level for a short period. On November 3, 2022, the negotiation of the dollar closed at $ 5,015.84, and for November 5 it had already touched its maximum point by quoting at $ 5,061,21.
Returning a little over time, the uncertainty generated by Petro’s victory resulted in a strong reaction by the markets. As already mentioned, The currency adopted an upward trendwhich responded in part to the concerns of investors in the face of their economic agenda, in particular on taxes, oil and pensions.
However, although the green ticket was impacted by the electoral result, its effects are only part of the cake. In addition to the political environment, The increase in the dollar coincided with an international volatile context, With high crude oil prices, global inflation adjusting and a rise in the Federal Reserve of the US Federal Reserve. (Fed).
Throughout the first months of 2023, the panorama was not very different. The foreign currency moved between rises and casualties that did not fall from the $ 4,400 and that came to touch the barrier of $ 4,900.
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Dollar
Among the aspects at the local level that They came to mark part of the behavior of the exchange rate at that time The uncertainty generated around the reform agenda promoted by the Government and the discussion of these projects in Congress are highlighted. In the international environment, on the other hand, the course was defined by the decisions of the FED, the crude oil market and the agreement to expand the debt roof in the United States.
However, despite the high volatility of the currency, Colombia began to align with its peers at the regional level Regarding averages in terms of assets. So much, that in October the currency already landed over the $ 4,000 and, for the closing of 2023, the TRM was $ 3,822.05.
The following year, The foreign currency moved in the range between $ 3,800 and $ 4,400. Although several economic research centers projected that the exchange rate would end between $ 4,320 and $ 4,350, it culminated 2024 slightly above the forecasts ($ 4409.15)
In that sense, economic factors such as the increase in the minimum wage and the expectations of investors on the outcome of government flag projects, marked the dollar profits.
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2025: The weakening of the dollar
2025 has not been the best year for the American currency. Since November 2024, in the midst of the elections in the US, which would later define Donald Trump as the new president, the Colombian peso has maintained a noticeable appreciation against the dollar.
According to data from the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index, the green ticket fell 1.7% in this period and deepened the downward trend that it has maintained throughout the year, coming to accumulate a depreciation close to 8%.
In recent months, the dollar has been impacted by the results of the US labor market. And for the expectation that the Fed begins to cut its interest rates. To this is added the uncertainty generated by Tariff measures imposed by Trump to its commercial partnerswhich derives in turbulence in international trade.
Portafolio.co file
From the point of view of the Colombian weight, which is strengthened in parallel, it has benefited from a more cautious monetary policy, as well as by the capital entry promoted by investors and his appetite for emerging markets.
For the end of the year, some experts expect the green ticket to be maintained below $ 4,000. But, this prognosis is tied to several approaches such as that eventually the global weakening of the currency and that there is a change of political tendency.
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Jessika Rodriguez M.
Portfolio journalist
