Exports
The Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) estimates that for this year Mexico’s exports will grow by 3.9%, and for 2026 a growth of 4.4% is projected.
Although exports show a slowdown due to lower demand from its main buyer, the United States, it is expected that they will tend to grow by 2025, even in the face of Trump’s tariff threats.
Susana Duque Roquero, general director of Comce, explained that Mexico’s exports will benefit from integration into manufacturing value chains, as well as the rise of nearshoring.
By 2024, it is estimated that the country’s exports will reach a record value of 610,000 million dollars, exceeding the 593,005 million registered in 2023.
Foreign investment
Regarding foreign direct investment (FDI), Comce anticipates that it will reach 39,324 million dollars in 2025, a slight increase compared to the 38,411 million projected for 2024. However, foreign trade entrepreneurs see potential for FDI reach 48 billion dollars in the next two years.
Reinvestments have gained relevance in recent years, while the proportion of new investments has remained at low levels. Duque Roquero highlighted that the evaluation of FDI must go beyond its volume, considering its transformative impact on industries and communities.
Furthermore, he proposed that to guarantee a sustained increase in FDI, it must be linked to strategic sectors such as electromobility, renewable energies and digital technologies.
Everything depends on the T-MEC
Despite the encouraging projections of private initiative in Mexico, the performance of exports and FDI will depend on the future of the USMCA. According to an analysis of economic prospects by Scotiabank, achieving consensus to extend the validity of the agreement will be a priority for the Mexican government.
A key challenge will be aligning incentives for the three countries to maintain the treaty on a trilateral basis, allowing Mexico and Canada to increase their share of U.S. imports. In particular, with incoming President Donald Trump’s strategy of linking trade policy with immigration and security policy, it will be crucial for Mexico to design a comprehensive strategy that addresses these three issues and demonstrates the benefits of greater integration through the T- MEC.
Although the formal review of the agreement is scheduled for 2026, the uncertainty generated by Trump’s protectionist policy could negatively impact exports and investment from the first months of 2025.
Luis Miguel Jiménez, partner at Von Wobeser y Sierra in the international trade practice, commented that although the T-MEC review process is scheduled for 2026, that does not mean that there cannot be relevant movements in the trade relationship of the three countries. from next year.
