The publication of the July 2025 economy (ISE) monitor Analysts agreed that it is an encouraging rebound, but with weak bases.
Portfolio collected the voices of several analysts and guilds, who agree that the data, which reflects an improvement against the last two years, was driven by the good performance of secondary activities, with an increase of 4.3%, and the tertiary, which grew 5.5%.
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In contrast, the primary sector (agriculture and mining) returned to negative field, with a fall of -1.6% and thus, in the accumulated between January and July, The economy grew 2.7%, above 1.4% that had been registered in the same period of 2024.
The guilds see mixed signs
From the National Association of Entrepreneurs of Colombia (ANDI), its president, Bruce Mac Master, acknowledged that the result is positive in terms of economic rhythm, but warned that growth is not homogeneous and that key sectors such as construction and mining are still lagging behind.
Julio’s Ise positively surprised the market.
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For Mac Master, “this growth is not enough, since important sectors still They are lagging behind, such as mining and construction. This heterogeneous behavior affects through its chains to more economic sectors, therefore, an economic growth strategy that impuls up homogeneously to the entire economy is necessary. ”
The union leader also stressed the importance of maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that encourages investment, warning that “the low investment levels compromise the economic growth of this year and the medium term”, insisting on the need for a long -breath strategy that allows the productive apparatus to generate added value and more formal employment.
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Along the same lines, although with a more technical analysis, Valentina Guio, a senior economist of Scotiabank Colpatria, stressed that growth was mainly supported by services, highlighting that activities such as public administration, entertainment, trade, transport, accommodation, accommodation and financial services recorded expansions greater than 6%. Faced with this, the primary They fell about 2%, dragged mainly due to the poor performance of mining throughout the year.
Guio also pointed out that “from our point of view, it is mainly supported by the consumption of households, which on the one hand has had a very strong clash in income due to the historical entry of remittances that we have evidenced in the run of this year and following the same trend that we saw the entry of historical remittances throughout 2024”.
Julio’s Ise positively surprised the market.
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With this panorama, Scotiabank expects the economy to grow a little above of their initial expectations for 2025, which were between 2.6% and 2.7%. However, Guio was clear in warning that these data reinforce the caution of the Bank of the Republic and according to its reading, the monetary authority will maintain the interest rate at 9.25% during the rest of the year, due to the recent rebound of inflation and the strength of domestic demand.
Called to a solid productive base
From the international business sector, the director of Amcham Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture, was blunt and said it was a “good fact, but fragile.” For her, July 4.3% is a weak rebound because it lacks support in the productive base. Although the services advanced 5.5% and helped push the indicator, the fall in primary activities and the structural weakness of sectors such as construction calls into question the sustainability of growth.
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Lacouture requested concrete measures to unlock the investment. Among them, less procedures, clear rules, execution of infrastructure projects that reduce technical training costs and programs that strengthen productivity. Without these changes, he warned, recovery It will continue to depend on the services, without a real support in strategic sectors of the economy.
In this way, although the result of July shows a more dynamic economy than in the last two years, experts agree that fragilities persist, since the engine of services has allowed accelerating growth, but the lag in mining, construction and productive investment generates concern.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
